Saturday, March 16, 2024

Texas Says Yes to Maritime Education

Texas A&M has educated offshore and deep-sea mariners at its Galveston campus since 1963. Unlike the founding of other maritime academies, there was no external impetus, such as war (Maine, 1941; USMMA, 1943; MEBA Union, 1965), a generous new subsidy (California, 1929; Great Lakes, 1969), or lack of skilled mariners (New York, 1874; Massachusetts, 1891; AMO Union, 2010). College was not required to serve on the first generation of oil rig vessels, debunking yet another theory. Instead, it appears that Texas, then one of the poorest states in the nation, wanted to make good for its citizens. They could sail as ships’ officers from New Orleans or another coastal port, and bring home good paychecks. A recent change- tuition cuts for maritime programs- continues this tradition. Like medicine, maritime education has been costly for several decades, but if you stick with the program, then the rewards in salary will easily cover the cost. There is a negative feedback loop, specifically that lower-paying jobs, like primary care medicine, or working onboard research vessels and training ships, are understaffed with high turnover. In several newsworthy cases, some medical schools have drastically cut tuition, in hopes that earning potential decreases as a factor in career decisions. While Texas has cut the cost of maritime education by $300 per credit hour, it only applies to In-State and In-Region students. However, this could have a big impact on the composition of future seafarers. Currently, the Carolinas and Gulf Coast are underrepresented among the merchant marine officer ranks. Geographic distance from a maritime academy, coupled with cultural differences from the Northeast (New York is closest), contribute to this issue. While USMMA remains the sole tuition-free option, Texas is accessible to non-traditional students, including those who started as deckhands, and does not have an age limit to entry.

Saturday, March 2, 2024

Boeing's Loveable 757

It’s the early 1980s. While the duopoly against Airbus was not yet established, Boeing had strong competition in the commercial jet aircraft sector from McDonnell- Douglas, and for a while, Lockheed’s L-1011 Tristar. Innovation was key to staying ahead of the competition; and the key advantage with Boeing’s 757, the direct successor to the 727, was dropping the engine count from three to two. Production stopped in 2004, but the 757’s new purchase market had already declined to niche markets after September 2001, which pushed multiple US air carriers into bankruptcy. The 757 was known as the “racecar” of the skies, as it was overpowered due to the lack of a suitable sized engine on the 1980’s market. When oil prices steadily increased in the 2002-2008 period, airline executives could not justify purchasing more high-performance, overpowered, fuel-guzzling aircraft that pilots loved to fly. Some traits: It was the largest aircraft that can service Washington Reagan and New York Laguardia airports, both in the top-25 busiest airports in the US. Other aircraft of similar size require more runway length for takeoff than these airports have. The aircraft had performance for high-altitude takeoff in South America and Central Asia. Higher cruising altitude over 40,000 feet, which was only surpassed by the supersonic Concorde. This allowed for avoiding all types of weather turbulence. Year-round non-stop flights between the Eastern US and Western Europe, with 160-180 seats serving “long, thin routes”. I flew one from New York to Edinburgh, Scotland in 2007; and Iceland Air makes good use of the aircraft model today, Transcontinental flights to the West Coast, allowing improved legroom options over the 737. For example, United regularly used the aircraft on its Washington, DC to San Francisco route. Oh, and the “turn left for first class” routine, as the forward boarding door was located some distance aft of the cockpit. Around 2017, Boeing appeared ready to proceed with designing a new 757, under Project Yellowstone, sometimes dubbed the “797” or the “New Mid Market Aircraft”. The airline, however, diverted its efforts to fixing production of the revolutionary, and larger, 787 aircraft, which itself was a fresh slate 15 years in the making; and releasing the 737 Max, the fourth iteration and transcontinental version of what was once a regional jet. I’ve made big business predictions before on the blog, one of which was a major corporation moving into vacant office space immediately south of the Pentagon. Both Amazon and Boeing did so. This one might have been a napkin sketch rather than a blog post, but I felt that Norfolk International Airport was ready for a regional airline hub. Breeze Airways entered the picture seven years after Vision Airlines failed in their attempt from nearby Newport News. What if Boeing shrank the 787, a two-engine aircraft, to fit the aging 757’s market, using a common type rating for both the flagship and miniature models? With competition from Airbus in this size range, only a quarter of orders for the 787 have been for the 787-800 variety, with 230 seats. Boeing still needs to work through its backlog of orders for this jet. But shrinking the plane will cover the mid-market gap that the 737 Max can’t fill.

Tuesday, February 20, 2024

Does Small Business Still Matter to the Left? (Flashback to '04)

I remember the presidential campaign of 2004, a clash of values and vision. Howard Dean’s community aesthetics tied into Howard Schultz building out Starbucks as a third place for apartment dwellers. Small business would fill out all the little shops on the walkable block. This contrasted to the Bush-Cheney vision of “cowboy capitalism”, or the “ownership society”, with praise for newbuilt subdivisions and big-box retail as the American Dream fueled by cheap oil. What happened? Howard Schultz, once an icon of responsible capitalism, is now a “union buster” and “corporate shill”. (“They closed the Starbucks at UNION Station in DC? How fitting”). Those downtown small businesses, struggling due to workers not being in the office towers upstairs? “Let them fail”. Today, it is the Right that pines for physical third places, specifically churches, temples, and indoor shopping malls; and against deforestation in their communities (see the controversy over data centers overlooking Manassas National Battlefield). The Left, at least the ones who can afford the privilege, will buy that larger house with the big kitchen and extra bedrooms (for home offices), and order necessities and luxuries on their Amazon Prime account. Enter the digital age. Online confessionals by small business owners and managers explain just “how the sausage gets ground” when keeping their shop open- for example, the floated checks or delayed code-mandated repairs. Young people, being less attached to work, have less tolerance for the owner’s eccentricities- which contrast to the lawyer-reviewed handbooks that the big corporations issue. Career advancement, once a hallmark of fast-growing small and medium sized businesses, is less important when you just want to do your job and get a paycheck. The home or apartment is the first, second, and third place – live, work, and play- when you have a virtual job and a virtual community on social media. Then there is the question of feasibility for a college-educated professional or regular working mariner to pursue small business ownership- retail rents are still high, despite the so-called retail apocalypse; and student loan and home mortgage costs cutting into investable capital. In other words, more people are failing the Quick Test of liquidity, through issues beyond their immediate control. Big business has moved to the Left, and I am talking in economic terms. For the past 15 years, at least until last year’s interest rate bump, big business has been able to borrow money at 0 to 2% rate, effectively operating under Keynesian economics; while small business owners are constrained to a restrictive money policy, with credit card advances and home equity loans always at 7% or higher. Big business, therefore, was able to implement liberal priorities such as health insurance for all employees, and a higher base wage; while smaller businesses had less financial flexibility to do so, relying on legislative carveouts on health coverage, paid time off, and certain reasonable accommodation laws to stay afloat. What does it mean when the Left is no longer enamored for small business? Cash may be king for socially disadvantaged customers, but it’s icky for a business owner to move money in a non-digital format. Democrats have led the effort to reduce the cash reporting threshold from $10,000 to $600, and hire more tax auditors at the IRS. “Schedule C” filers, who make up the majority of small business owners and independent contractors, always feel that they are at risk of audit, due to the vagueness of the deductible expense categories – for example, all “Repair and Maintenance” costs are reported on a single line. So, while the expansion of the IRS workforce may be targeted at millionaires, small business owners fear that they will feel the pinch. But the current differences between the Left and small business can be overcome. After all, there is a push to support Black-Owned Businesses as a method of economic empowerment. It is more of a lack of understanding by the technocratic class, who may not personally know a small business owner. For those who work at sea, it is common to hear about dreams of owning a business, but less common for shipmates to talk about the challenges of doing so.

Saturday, February 3, 2024

That Mariner Reference Number

Social Security Numbers used to have a rhyme and reason, which turned out to be a downside. With somebody’s hometown and date of birth, a hacker had a reasonable chance of guessing a social security number. Since 2011, new numbers issued to infants and immigrants have been randomized. The US Coast Guard likewise uses Mariner Reference Numbers, which for the longest time were issued in sequential order. So, you could take a look at the ship’s license rack, outside the Captain’s office, and determine who the real old salts were. For Maritime Academy students, Mariner Reference Numbers are usually issued before interning on a commercial or government ship, either freshman or sophomore year, depending on the school. Thus, a class year would have Mariner Reference Numbers grouped in close proximity. There are exceptions, for example, students who got their start as commercial fishermen or deep-sea deckhands. Those experienced mariners near retirement today have numbers in the vicinity of 2500000. Members of the Class of 2020 have numbers around 4500000. It’s certainly doubtful that the US Coast Guard has issued credentials to 2.5 million citizens and lawful residents, but there was a certain order to the numbering. After that, all bets are off. I’ve seen Mariner Reference Numbers in the 8000000’s, for example. It's certainly the end of a longstanding era. Before the Merchant Marine Act of 1936, the US Coast Guard issued entry-level credentials to many people who never had an intent of working at sea. It was a good way to get a no-cost photo ID during a time when not all states required driver’s licenses, and car ownership was far from universal. The “Z-Cards” of the World War Two era bore a six-digit number. Many were issued to the crews of thousands of Liberty and Victory ships, and were replaced free-of-charge if lost in a maritime casualty (this provision still stands, though fortunately few credentials are lost in shipwreck today). Mariner Reference Numbers crept upward at varying paces, depending on the tides of war and economic fortune. Now, they bounce by leaps and bounds.

Friday, January 19, 2024

Is Money Enough?

One of the great appeals of merchant shipping is lifestyle design, where people with wanderlust could take extended trips unthinkable to those working a 50-week-a year grind. The other appeal is paying off student loans in 5 years or less. Use Mom and Dad as a mailing address, and sleep and eat on the employer’s dime. Port visits are open again, but seeing the recent difficulties for recruiting and retention in the maritime field, something else is going on. We are a decade past “peak college”; enrollment is declining in both absolute numbers and percentage. Where maritime academies burst at their seams ten years ago with students hopeful for solid employment, today, there is more space in the dorms and hallways. It wasn’t supposed to be this way. I’ve seen posters from the 1920’s proclaiming the need for more education. Slacking students in the 1980’s (see “A Nation at Risk”) were a threat to national security and economic prosperity. In the post-NAFTA era, education would be the lifeline for workers displaced from uncompetitive industries and outdated factories. Populists like Pat Buchanan and Donald Trump countered this assertion with a more authoritative model: the government could pay for infrastructure programs and subsidize the construction of new factories for the titans of industry. The construction of new oceangoing training ships under recent Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao, the first of which launched last year as the “T/S Empire State VII”, is an icon of this model. Yet, more recently under President Biden and his state-level allies have accomplished the same populist improvement through a different model, by raising the minimum wage and tipping the scales of arbitration towards labor. With the floor as high as $20 per hour in California, or $15 per hour elsewhere ($30,000 per year), entry-level workers without college degrees are earning similarly to college graduates five years ago, who would accept subsistence wages to get a foot in the door. Likewise, entry level shipboard jobs can pay close to what newly-graduated officers earn. Traditionally, many seafarers hailed from high cost-of-living areas such as New York and Boston; today, recruiting focuses on the lower-cost Coastal South, and not requiring municipal services much of the year, many experienced mariners establish residence in states without an income tax, predominately in Florida and Texas. There is less pressure to become an officer for the higher pay, or to dedicate a career to a field where Sundays are often spent at work, rather than at church. For now, higher education has lost its end-all, final-word status as an economic proposal. But as I have stated before, the growth of understanding is still essential to the modern mariner.

Sunday, January 7, 2024

Good Crews and Safe Skies

Large passenger engulfed in flames at Haneida Airport in Tokyo! Everyone survived! I call it a pleasant miracle; others prefer to give credit to the flight crew and passengers. Quick evacuation of the aircraft was indeed necessary; the aircraft's interior was fire retardent but not fireproof. Passengers followed directions, and correctly left their belongings onboard. What seems like an anomaly of good disciple to Americans is the expected response by the United States' Federal Aviation Administration. Evacuate a full aircraft in 90 seconds. Are we up to the task? The common Boeing 737 was first evaluated in the 1960's. Since then, passengers have become bigger, seats narrower, and no longer trained with military discipline. But didn't the 2009 landing of Flight 1549 on New York's Hudson River prove that we Americans could do the right thing? Kind of; this plane was on a "banker's run" between New York and the finance-driven city of Charlotte, North Carolina. Before videoconferencing hit its stride in 2020, businesspeople used to take weekly plane trips to routine meetings. So you had a lot of experience fliers who were not predispositioned to rock the norms. A bit different maker than a tourist flight to Orlando. I think, overall, that Japan Airlines Flight 516 is a wake-up to pay attention to maintaining standards of passenger safety.

Monday, December 25, 2023

Eggnog Thoughts

I've never done a Christmas at sea. My ship was always in port, or I was on vacation. Such was the case last year, when I was in a Singapore shipyard. Many of us went 'out to town' and came back to the officer's mess with stories of our adventures in the city-state, where most venues and activities are open on Christmas Day. For Christians, Christmas is about the birth of Jesus; but in the broader societal sense, is about connecting with people, friends and family. In contrast to my experience with United States public vessels, most ships do not take a day off for Christmas. You might need a tap on the shoulder to remember that it is a day of joy and merriment; at the same time the folks back home are caught up in their Christmas activities- shopping, church, and gatherings. Here's to the seafarer in your life.