Tuesday, February 20, 2024

Does Small Business Still Matter to the Left? (Flashback to '04)

I remember the presidential campaign of 2004, a clash of values and vision. Howard Dean’s community aesthetics tied into Howard Schultz building out Starbucks as a third place for apartment dwellers. Small business would fill out all the little shops on the walkable block. This contrasted to the Bush-Cheney vision of “cowboy capitalism”, or the “ownership society”, with praise for newbuilt subdivisions and big-box retail as the American Dream fueled by cheap oil. What happened? Howard Schultz, once an icon of responsible capitalism, is now a “union buster” and “corporate shill”. (“They closed the Starbucks at UNION Station in DC? How fitting”). Those downtown small businesses, struggling due to workers not being in the office towers upstairs? “Let them fail”. Today, it is the Right that pines for physical third places, specifically churches, temples, and indoor shopping malls; and against deforestation in their communities (see the controversy over data centers overlooking Manassas National Battlefield). The Left, at least the ones who can afford the privilege, will buy that larger house with the big kitchen and extra bedrooms (for home offices), and order necessities and luxuries on their Amazon Prime account. Enter the digital age. Online confessionals by small business owners and managers explain just “how the sausage gets ground” when keeping their shop open- for example, the floated checks or delayed code-mandated repairs. Young people, being less attached to work, have less tolerance for the owner’s eccentricities- which contrast to the lawyer-reviewed handbooks that the big corporations issue. Career advancement, once a hallmark of fast-growing small and medium sized businesses, is less important when you just want to do your job and get a paycheck. The home or apartment is the first, second, and third place – live, work, and play- when you have a virtual job and a virtual community on social media. Then there is the question of feasibility for a college-educated professional or regular working mariner to pursue small business ownership- retail rents are still high, despite the so-called retail apocalypse; and student loan and home mortgage costs cutting into investable capital. In other words, more people are failing the Quick Test of liquidity, through issues beyond their immediate control. Big business has moved to the Left, and I am talking in economic terms. For the past 15 years, at least until last year’s interest rate bump, big business has been able to borrow money at 0 to 2% rate, effectively operating under Keynesian economics; while small business owners are constrained to a restrictive money policy, with credit card advances and home equity loans always at 7% or higher. Big business, therefore, was able to implement liberal priorities such as health insurance for all employees, and a higher base wage; while smaller businesses had less financial flexibility to do so, relying on legislative carveouts on health coverage, paid time off, and certain reasonable accommodation laws to stay afloat. What does it mean when the Left is no longer enamored for small business? Cash may be king for socially disadvantaged customers, but it’s icky for a business owner to move money in a non-digital format. Democrats have led the effort to reduce the cash reporting threshold from $10,000 to $600, and hire more tax auditors at the IRS. “Schedule C” filers, who make up the majority of small business owners and independent contractors, always feel that they are at risk of audit, due to the vagueness of the deductible expense categories – for example, all “Repair and Maintenance” costs are reported on a single line. So, while the expansion of the IRS workforce may be targeted at millionaires, small business owners fear that they will feel the pinch. But the current differences between the Left and small business can be overcome. After all, there is a push to support Black-Owned Businesses as a method of economic empowerment. It is more of a lack of understanding by the technocratic class, who may not personally know a small business owner. For those who work at sea, it is common to hear about dreams of owning a business, but less common for shipmates to talk about the challenges of doing so.

Saturday, February 3, 2024

That Mariner Reference Number

Social Security Numbers used to have a rhyme and reason, which turned out to be a downside. With somebody’s hometown and date of birth, a hacker had a reasonable chance of guessing a social security number. Since 2011, new numbers issued to infants and immigrants have been randomized. The US Coast Guard likewise uses Mariner Reference Numbers, which for the longest time were issued in sequential order. So, you could take a look at the ship’s license rack, outside the Captain’s office, and determine who the real old salts were. For Maritime Academy students, Mariner Reference Numbers are usually issued before interning on a commercial or government ship, either freshman or sophomore year, depending on the school. Thus, a class year would have Mariner Reference Numbers grouped in close proximity. There are exceptions, for example, students who got their start as commercial fishermen or deep-sea deckhands. Those experienced mariners near retirement today have numbers in the vicinity of 2500000. Members of the Class of 2020 have numbers around 4500000. It’s certainly doubtful that the US Coast Guard has issued credentials to 2.5 million citizens and lawful residents, but there was a certain order to the numbering. After that, all bets are off. I’ve seen Mariner Reference Numbers in the 8000000’s, for example. It's certainly the end of a longstanding era. Before the Merchant Marine Act of 1936, the US Coast Guard issued entry-level credentials to many people who never had an intent of working at sea. It was a good way to get a no-cost photo ID during a time when not all states required driver’s licenses, and car ownership was far from universal. The “Z-Cards” of the World War Two era bore a six-digit number. Many were issued to the crews of thousands of Liberty and Victory ships, and were replaced free-of-charge if lost in a maritime casualty (this provision still stands, though fortunately few credentials are lost in shipwreck today). Mariner Reference Numbers crept upward at varying paces, depending on the tides of war and economic fortune. Now, they bounce by leaps and bounds.