On a recent Tuesday night, Virginia just broke one of the
longest statewide Democratic voting streaks in the nation, on par with California
and New York. The oft-presumed blue state, which had not elected a statewide Republican
since 2009, appeared quite red with a sweep of statewide offices. With just three statewide offices, in addition
to the two senators and the Presidential vote, these races have become
high-stake affairs; and down-ballot offices coming with national notoriety.
The Democratic Party bench appears much weaker than before.
Former Governor Doug Wilder, a Democrat, wisely criticized incumbents Terry
McAuliffe, running for a second, non-consecutive, term as Governor; and Mark
Herring, running for a third term as Attorney General, for blocking the advancement
of new leaders. Congresswomen Abigail Spanberger and Elaine Luria represent future
statewide potential; it seems unlikely that recently-elected Northern Virginia
progressives could mount a successful statewide campaign.
The Party of Virginia’s Attorney General
Weeks before Incoming Attorney General Jason Miyares was
elected, “Woke Prosecutors” found themselves under investigation for misuse of
position, retaliation, neglect of office, and neglect of state law. Outgoing
Attorney General Mark Herring seemed to be more interested in national issues,
such as abortion, than what was happening in his own Loudoun County backyard. Prior
to Mark Herring’s narrow 2013 election were a string of five one-term
Republican Attorneys General who each sought higher office. Progressives handed
Jason Miyares, 45 years young, fuel to feed his political ambitions.
Solid South or Something New?
Democrats held the Virginia House of Delegates for 2 years
before losing it in this month’s election. Their last hold of the chamber
lasted the entire 20th century. Followed by 18 years of Republican
leadership, these long tenures reflect the political stability of the Solid
South. The recent, liberal Democratic Party majority chose confrontation, and
the brute force of narrow statehouse votes, over lasting collaboration. Their
leaders are now paying the price.
It would be premature to assume that the legislative “Class
of 2019” was a mere blip on the Republicans’ rightful legislative dynasty. Prior
to the Trump presidency, Republicans held a supermajority in the House of
Delegates. Court-ordered redistricting allowed Democrats to gain seats, and
suburban voters soured against the Republican Party during Trump’s presidency. Concerningly,
today’s new and thin Republican majority has no representation in the first two
rings of counties surrounding Washington, DC, and a scant two seats in the
third ring; although Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin fares from Great Falls, an
upscale district along the Potomac River. These growing Northern Virginia
suburbs are at risk of becoming a one-party region.
A characteristic of the Solid South is the maintenance of
social hierarchy, with the proven effect of limiting class mobility. Incumbent
businesses are protected, creating a drag on productivity and economic growth. At
the end of Massive Resistance to desegregation, conservative Democratic Party
leader Harry Byrd had a choice: hunker down or embrace change. He chose the
latter (although his statue would lose its place at the Virginia Capitol). This
libertarianism, once favored by both major parties in Virginia, is found in
areas such as gambling, alcohol; and business regulation, such as limiting
non-compete clauses and favoring the right-to-work. As liberal Democrats have
shied away from economic liberties, Republicans are in a better position than
before to secure the votes of educated, suburban, pro-business moderates. Blue Virginia noted that upscale, educated,
politically-balanced districts within Democratic-voting counties had extraordinary
turnout in this year’s election.
Virginia Senate Changes Little
With a 21-19 split in favor of Democrats, and a spirit of
collegiality, one observer quipped that the Senate Democrats would work better
with House Republicans than with the Democratic Party progressives who led the
last two legislative sessions.
The Democratic Party leadership in the Virginia Senate might
prefer to work on compromises to Glenn Youngkin’s agenda, rather than acting as
a stonewall. In this later case, two swing-voting Democrats from Fairfax City and
Richmond, with the incoming Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears, a Republican,
would hold immense power in government. In the last year, faced with a single
defection from party line voting, marijuana and policing bills were decided on
tiebreaking votes in the Virginia Senate. Outgoing Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax
tipped these bills in favor of Democrats; on future tie votes, Winsome Sears
would tip the bills the other way.
“RINO” Hunters Decide that Voting Matters
Virginia is home to many low-propensity and fickle conservative
voters that continually vexed the Republican party. Geographically, they are
concentrated in rural areas west of Richmond. They came out for John McCain in
2008, but were overwhelmed by Barack Obama’s supporters. They stayed home in
2012, when they could have won; then came out for Trump, but were again
outvoted. It was to this group that Trump, in his fury, suggested boycotting future
elections. This year, Republicans made a concerted effort to get these
dissatisfied citizens to vote. On gun
and religious forums that appeal to this demographic, authors reminded readers
to scrape off their bumper stickers reading: “My Governor is an Idiot”.
In a high-turnout election with six weeks of in-person early
voting, Republicans prevailed, challenging the orthodoxy that increase ballot
access favors Democrats. The 45-day early voting period, a now-permanent product
of COVID-19 countermeasures, represents a unique opportunity for Republican Presidential
candidates: they can ground-stomp for Virginia votes in October, before turning
to traditional swing states in the last weeks of the race.
