Work Hard, Play Hard, Retire Well: The Skilled Labor Shortage Explained

At the beginning of the 21st century, highly-skilled transportation professionals had in their hands a golden bargain that the Greatest Generation fought for and won. In exchange for long periods away from home- weeks or months- ship's officers could retire at the age of 50, with a fully-funded pension. Airline pilots had the same pension by the age 60. These comparatively short career durations, less than 30 years, predictably allowed younger professionals to move into frontline leadership roles, as First Officers and Captains during their family-building years. Ceremoniously, officers of the Marine Engineers' Beneficial Association would turn over their Merchant Mariner's License- their meal ticket- when applying for pension payments. There was no legal authority to take away the pensioner's license to work; only a moral one, in that one should not compete against family men and women for work, while collecting a pension. There was a surreptitious feeling among retirees who requested replacement credentials from the US Coast Guard for various retirement pursuits, such as operating their own tour boats. Over two decades, the mandatory retirement age for airline pilots increased to 65; and the American Maritime Officers' (AMO) pension fund was frozen, in exchange for a 401(k) plan. Notably, the AMO continued to allow recipients of pension buyouts to continue bidding on jobs. In comparison to blue-collar work, sitting in the pilot's seat or at the shipboard watch desk was not physically arduous, although work physicals were required. But early retirement was something for family members of airline pilots and ship's officers to look forward to, after decades of missed family celebrations and shift-work schedules: "I know I'm missing Christmas again, but it's only 3 more years to go". These unique jobs were nevertheless wrapped into the greater cultural zeitgeist of "never retiring" among senior workers, and the careerism of middle-class millenials. Retirement-eligible ship's officers continued to hold jobs at the top of each career ladder into their sixties. These jobs remained economically lucrative, even as payscales for new entrants stagnated: "Suck it up, young buttercup, just wait your turn for the big bucks". The COVID-19 pandemic shook up the zeitgeist. Perhaps retirement wasn't so bad, after all. Some of the job perks in the air or at sea, like going ashore in foreign countries, vanished. The ship master's reponsibility for controlling the spread infectious disease, thought to be a vestigial relic of the smallpox and polio era, came to the forefront. Who will fill these senior-level jobs that have suddenly come open? Having gone years with limited prospect of upward mobility, younger officers with transferrable knowledge and skills may have become disenchanted with employment in global transportation, and moved into other careers. What is the price for bringing back the workforce? At the Military Sealift Command, a 50% salary incentive is bending the curve in recruiting Chief Mates back from their shoreside employment. Flagship airlines are coming to accept this price as well, signing collective bargaining agreements that offer double-time pay for weekend work.

Systems Engineering by Bus

You may remember the park-and-ride blog post I wrote several years ago. I have to admit, I like to draft bus maps and schedules, and have done so well before pursing my master’s degree in systems engineering. In my coursework, I got credit for doing what I love: making bus schedules. In the era of work-from-home, it seems a bit untimely to be thinking about the topic. But COVID-19 had pummeled transit agencies and private bus companies to the ground, so the only trendline is upward. Tools used: -Google Maps, whose driving times between destinations are overly optimistic -Local transit schedules for major cities, which have included traffic conditions that vary on time-of-day -Driving the route itself. - Transit maps from the early 1970s, as these maps show the dense neighborhoods where transit was economically viable prior to federal subsidies. -Excel Spreadsheets, Got to have them. Throw in real-world constraints: -People don’t like to sit on buses that take them on a circuitous ride. Put straight lines on the map, preferably on freeways with exclusive transit lanes, and try to get people to work in 30 minutes or less. -Choice riders (aka, the middle class) will not tolerate unreliable or infrequent service. Buffer time must be included to improve schedule adherence. -The most efficient use of buses is to serve a prosperous central business district with high parking costs. Focus on routes to big cities. -Subsidy of commuter passes, as required for employers in Los Angeles and Washington, DC; are effective at increasing ridership. Focus on routes to big, environmentally progressive cities. - Equipment Cost of Ownership, Fuel, Union-Level Wages. Cost Per Operating Hour, or about $110 per hour for private operators, is a good metric. Consult the experts: -Randall O’Toole of the libertarian Cato Institute had put public transit in his crosshairs. But to know his enemy, he did extensive research on alternatives, such as Uber and immigrant-run jitney services in New York. -Studies performed by the US Department of Transportation, and states such as New Jersey and Virginia, during the transition to industry deregulation in the 1980s. Titles include “Private Sector Options for Commuter Transportation, 1984” and “Financing Public Transportation in Virginia, 1979”. Put it all together, and you get short and sweet routes through dense, but low-traffic neighborhoods. A real-world example of this model is the eponymous Short Line in New York; or DeCamp in New Jersey. Both pea-shoot passengers through the Hudson River’s Lincoln Tunnel, use exclusive transit lanes, and quickly arrive in walkable suburban neighborhoods.