Russian President Vladimir Putin did the unthinkable: There’s a shooting war in Europe. Fear of isolation from the “international community”, whatever that means to liberal democracies, the Geneva Convention, lessons from the Nuremburg Trials, and economic sanctions, failed to stop total war in Ukraine. NATO and the US was afraid of “poking the bear”, but Putin escalated his war nevertheless.
The news has covered the stories of Ukrainian-American expatriates
and mercenaries fighting in the ground war; and I have had peers ask “how do I
join the fight?”. To those with maritime experience, I advise staying at sea, with
a focus on delivering food and supplies. Odessa, accessed through Istanbul’s Bosporus
Strait and through the Black Sea, offers the most daring route. Russian harassment
and occasional attacks on vessels today harken back to World War Two’s Murmansk
Run. A successful convoy of merchant ships can deliver more goods than
airplanes and trucks, the current vehicles of logistics. The merchant marine is
a business, however, and in wartime conditions, governments must provide
assurance to vessels flying their flag. In the United States, various tools can
be activated by the Maritime Administration, under the DOT. These include activation
of Second Seaman’s War Risk Insurance, to guarantee life insurance benefits for
mariners, and vessel insurance for shipowners. Declaring a Sealift Emergency
would allow retired and former mariners to crew ships, with the ability to
return to their shore-based jobs after completing a voyage (similar to the
USERRA benefit provided to military reservists and draftees).
Dependency on Oil and Gas is the Achille’s heel of the West.
During the first week of Putin’s war in Ukraine, which began on February 22nd,
countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom had no plans to curtail fuel
purchases from Russia’s war machine. Given that fuel prices at the gas pump had
already increased, I was afraid that the politicians in Washington, DC would be
afraid of acting decisively. Initially, I felt that some form of rationing or
subsidy (such as government-issued fuel cards to consumers) would be required
to ease off Russian fuel imports. This would go hand-in-hand with fuel
conservation posters asking motorists “if this trip is necessary”. Citizens
would be asked to turn down the thermostat in cold-weather environments, and raise
it in warm-weather environments, to save fuel.
The transition was easier than expected. Existing domestic
production, the price/demand curve for fuel consumption, and cooperation from
other OPEC nations allowed the US to adapt to the cut in Russian fuel imports. Idle
offshore oil rigs were already being restored to service, as the price of oil
had increased over the key threshold of $80 per barrel. In oil rig layup, the drilling
rig roughnecks and brown-water mariners bear the brunt of fluctuations: working
on a drillship or supply vessel is high-paying work when it is available.
In World War Two, construction of the Big Inch Pipeline from
Texas to New Jersey was prioritized in order to free oil tankers from the
dangerous duty of navigating the Atlantic Coast, infested with Nazi U-Boats. Energy
security today demands construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline, while
respecting the rights of the Lakota People. This pipeline alone is reported to
have the carrying capacity equivalent to fuel imports from Russia. While the
conflict in Ukraine will hopefully be resolved before completion of the
pipeline, its existence should change Russia’s geopolitical calculations in the
longer term. On the greener side, conservatives and war hawks will find clean
energy investments, such as solar and wind farms, to be part of a national
security strategy.
President Eisenhower correctly assessed the importance of logistics
in wartime. This is evident in reports of frontline Russian soldiers begging
for MREs, or pre-packaged meals. Food,
Supplies, and Fuel- both how we use them at home, and how we deliver them to
Ukraine, are essential parts for victory.
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