Systems Engineering by Bus

You may remember the park-and-ride blog post I wrote several years ago. I have to admit, I like to draft bus maps and schedules, and have done so well before pursing my master’s degree in systems engineering. In my coursework, I got credit for doing what I love: making bus schedules. In the era of work-from-home, it seems a bit untimely to be thinking about the topic. But COVID-19 had pummeled transit agencies and private bus companies to the ground, so the only trendline is upward. Tools used: -Google Maps, whose driving times between destinations are overly optimistic -Local transit schedules for major cities, which have included traffic conditions that vary on time-of-day -Driving the route itself. - Transit maps from the early 1970s, as these maps show the dense neighborhoods where transit was economically viable prior to federal subsidies. -Excel Spreadsheets, Got to have them. Throw in real-world constraints: -People don’t like to sit on buses that take them on a circuitous ride. Put straight lines on the map, preferably on freeways with exclusive transit lanes, and try to get people to work in 30 minutes or less. -Choice riders (aka, the middle class) will not tolerate unreliable or infrequent service. Buffer time must be included to improve schedule adherence. -The most efficient use of buses is to serve a prosperous central business district with high parking costs. Focus on routes to big cities. -Subsidy of commuter passes, as required for employers in Los Angeles and Washington, DC; are effective at increasing ridership. Focus on routes to big, environmentally progressive cities. - Equipment Cost of Ownership, Fuel, Union-Level Wages. Cost Per Operating Hour, or about $110 per hour for private operators, is a good metric. Consult the experts: -Randall O’Toole of the libertarian Cato Institute had put public transit in his crosshairs. But to know his enemy, he did extensive research on alternatives, such as Uber and immigrant-run jitney services in New York. -Studies performed by the US Department of Transportation, and states such as New Jersey and Virginia, during the transition to industry deregulation in the 1980s. Titles include “Private Sector Options for Commuter Transportation, 1984” and “Financing Public Transportation in Virginia, 1979”. Put it all together, and you get short and sweet routes through dense, but low-traffic neighborhoods. A real-world example of this model is the eponymous Short Line in New York; or DeCamp in New Jersey. Both pea-shoot passengers through the Hudson River’s Lincoln Tunnel, use exclusive transit lanes, and quickly arrive in walkable suburban neighborhoods.