Having spent their lives fending for themselves, the theory goes,
Generation X is naturally conservative. In the New York Times, Ross Douthat further
speculates that this generation came of age in the 1980s and 1990s, a time of broad-based
conservative and neo-liberal reforms that delivered public order and individual
prosperity.
But exit polls in Terry McAuliffe’s two runs for Virginia
Governor tell a different story locally. In his 2013 run, the 30-40 demographic
voted strongest for the Democrat, while the under-30’s went for his unsuccessful
Tea Party Republican opponent, Ken Cuccinelli. In his 2021 campaign, McAuliffe
overperformed with the 40-50 demographic (who were 30-somethings in 2013); and
underperformed with the 30-40 group, ultimately losing the race. This inversion
of national trends perplexed me: why were our Gen X-ers more liberal than their
national peers, while our millennials tilted to the right?
Did liberal GenX-ers move to Virginia when then-Governor Tim
Kaine declared in 2008 that “Old Virginny is Dead”? Aside from the Democrats
who held statewide elected office, Virginia for the next decade would still retain
a distinctively conservative political culture. No, it was not Mr. Kaine’s
come-on, but one facilitated by the Great Recession. I have said before that
1987 was the worst year to be born in post-WWII America; indeed, in the face of
mass layoffs and unemployment, there were few jobs for recent college graduates
in 2009-2010. Washington, DC, however, stood out from the rest. The Federal
Government was hiring, and the Obama Administration was in-sourcing some
analyst and policy roles that had previously been outsourced to contractors.
Like California in the 1930’s, Washington, DC drew newcomers from across the
country to these government positions.
Where would these newcomers live? Washington, DC’s outer
suburbs, whose housing bubble had burst. Newly-built homes in cul-de-sac
subdivisions were available to rent at affordable prices. Virginia’s
conservative policies meant that the building boom was concentrated here, rather
than in the equidistant Maryland suburbs. A general rebound in home prices benefitted
homeowners in Manassas and Dumfries greatly. But that was a curse if they were
renters.
Virginia Democrats in elected office tend to be either
fiscally or socially conservative. In recent years, however, these suburbs are
the home of the most vocal progressives in the Virginia Legislature. There was
Democratic-Socialist Lee Carter, the liberal enforcer Haya Ayala, and transgender
Delegate Danica Roem. Carter and Ayala are no longer in elected office; their fast
ambition for statewide office ended in loss.
To explain away natural conservativism of Virginia millennials,
there is a practical matter that won’t repeat in future elections, hopefully. Older
millennials, especially mothers displaced from the workforce by lack of
childcare options, are the largest beneficiaries of Governor Glenn Youngkin’s
promise of “no more school lockdowns” for COVID-19. Tellingly, he won the “parent
vote” by 12 points.
In 2013, I thought it was the military vote that pushed the
youth vote to the right. Virginia always had a base of young conservatives:
military members from deep-Southern states: they preferred Bob Dole over Bill Clinton;
John McCain over Barack Obama. After the War on Terror began, it became commonplace
for servicemembers to keep their hometown residency, instead of switching it to
their Virginia duty station. Thus, Virginia Republicans lost room for electoral
error.
The parents of Northern Virginia millennials purchased homes
long ago at affordable prices in now highly-desirable inner-suburban
neighborhoods. In the 1990’s, they might have bought into a state college tuition
prepayment plan for their children; an investment with an incredible effective rate-of-return.
At that time, Governor George Allen successfully pivoted employment in the Cold
War-Era Defense Sector towards the nascent I.T. Industry, avoiding the job
losses and stagnation that hobbled Southern California for years. His fondness
for market-based solutions finally modernized Virginia’s segregation-era economic
system; a regulatory paradigm that kept people down, rather than help them grow.
Virginia’s youngsters were on trajectory
for the professional-class: those with liberal, creative interests moved to the
power cities of their respective careers. Virginia retained capital and infrastructure-heavy
firms that thrive in a loose regulatory environment, such as banking and
weapons manufacturing; the quants grew up and stayed at home, at least until financially
stable. There is nothing like a libertarian living in their parents’ basement:
childhood bedrooms offered short commutes and free rent.
For aspiring young professionals, living in the City of
Washington’s older housing allows for affordable options such as a shared bedroom.
For those who work nights in the service sector, the minimum wage is
progressive. Across the Potomac River in Virginia, the newer apartment stock of
the Clarendon-centered “polo shirt corridor” tends to rent itself to young
adults in higher-paying jobs such as finance and consulting. While the corridor
votes solidly Democratic, Progressivism has no home here. This may change with the
establishment of Amazon’s HQ2. Right-to-Work brought Amazon to Virginia; but
ironically, all those Amazon tech workers might, through elections in representative
democracy, spell the end of Right-to-Work in Virginia.
Thus comes my political theory: While Gen X-ers came to Virginia
in need; Millennials stayed in Virginia, in a position of relative strength and
privilege.
