Wednesday, June 4, 2025
On Renaming Ships, Part II
Saturday, July 6, 2024
Trump Came to Town
Saturday, February 19, 2022
Gen X Still Remembers the Great Recession: A Virginia Chronicle
Having spent their lives fending for themselves, the theory goes,
Generation X is naturally conservative. In the New York Times, Ross Douthat further
speculates that this generation came of age in the 1980s and 1990s, a time of broad-based
conservative and neo-liberal reforms that delivered public order and individual
prosperity.
But exit polls in Terry McAuliffe’s two runs for Virginia
Governor tell a different story locally. In his 2013 run, the 30-40 demographic
voted strongest for the Democrat, while the under-30’s went for his unsuccessful
Tea Party Republican opponent, Ken Cuccinelli. In his 2021 campaign, McAuliffe
overperformed with the 40-50 demographic (who were 30-somethings in 2013); and
underperformed with the 30-40 group, ultimately losing the race. This inversion
of national trends perplexed me: why were our Gen X-ers more liberal than their
national peers, while our millennials tilted to the right?
Did liberal GenX-ers move to Virginia when then-Governor Tim
Kaine declared in 2008 that “Old Virginny is Dead”? Aside from the Democrats
who held statewide elected office, Virginia for the next decade would still retain
a distinctively conservative political culture. No, it was not Mr. Kaine’s
come-on, but one facilitated by the Great Recession. I have said before that
1987 was the worst year to be born in post-WWII America; indeed, in the face of
mass layoffs and unemployment, there were few jobs for recent college graduates
in 2009-2010. Washington, DC, however, stood out from the rest. The Federal
Government was hiring, and the Obama Administration was in-sourcing some
analyst and policy roles that had previously been outsourced to contractors.
Like California in the 1930’s, Washington, DC drew newcomers from across the
country to these government positions.
Where would these newcomers live? Washington, DC’s outer
suburbs, whose housing bubble had burst. Newly-built homes in cul-de-sac
subdivisions were available to rent at affordable prices. Virginia’s
conservative policies meant that the building boom was concentrated here, rather
than in the equidistant Maryland suburbs. A general rebound in home prices benefitted
homeowners in Manassas and Dumfries greatly. But that was a curse if they were
renters.
Virginia Democrats in elected office tend to be either
fiscally or socially conservative. In recent years, however, these suburbs are
the home of the most vocal progressives in the Virginia Legislature. There was
Democratic-Socialist Lee Carter, the liberal enforcer Haya Ayala, and transgender
Delegate Danica Roem. Carter and Ayala are no longer in elected office; their fast
ambition for statewide office ended in loss.
To explain away natural conservativism of Virginia millennials,
there is a practical matter that won’t repeat in future elections, hopefully. Older
millennials, especially mothers displaced from the workforce by lack of
childcare options, are the largest beneficiaries of Governor Glenn Youngkin’s
promise of “no more school lockdowns” for COVID-19. Tellingly, he won the “parent
vote” by 12 points.
In 2013, I thought it was the military vote that pushed the
youth vote to the right. Virginia always had a base of young conservatives:
military members from deep-Southern states: they preferred Bob Dole over Bill Clinton;
John McCain over Barack Obama. After the War on Terror began, it became commonplace
for servicemembers to keep their hometown residency, instead of switching it to
their Virginia duty station. Thus, Virginia Republicans lost room for electoral
error.
The parents of Northern Virginia millennials purchased homes
long ago at affordable prices in now highly-desirable inner-suburban
neighborhoods. In the 1990’s, they might have bought into a state college tuition
prepayment plan for their children; an investment with an incredible effective rate-of-return.
At that time, Governor George Allen successfully pivoted employment in the Cold
War-Era Defense Sector towards the nascent I.T. Industry, avoiding the job
losses and stagnation that hobbled Southern California for years. His fondness
for market-based solutions finally modernized Virginia’s segregation-era economic
system; a regulatory paradigm that kept people down, rather than help them grow.
Virginia’s youngsters were on trajectory
for the professional-class: those with liberal, creative interests moved to the
power cities of their respective careers. Virginia retained capital and infrastructure-heavy
firms that thrive in a loose regulatory environment, such as banking and
weapons manufacturing; the quants grew up and stayed at home, at least until financially
stable. There is nothing like a libertarian living in their parents’ basement:
childhood bedrooms offered short commutes and free rent.
For aspiring young professionals, living in the City of
Washington’s older housing allows for affordable options such as a shared bedroom.
For those who work nights in the service sector, the minimum wage is
progressive. Across the Potomac River in Virginia, the newer apartment stock of
the Clarendon-centered “polo shirt corridor” tends to rent itself to young
adults in higher-paying jobs such as finance and consulting. While the corridor
votes solidly Democratic, Progressivism has no home here. This may change with the
establishment of Amazon’s HQ2. Right-to-Work brought Amazon to Virginia; but
ironically, all those Amazon tech workers might, through elections in representative
democracy, spell the end of Right-to-Work in Virginia.
Thus comes my political theory: While Gen X-ers came to Virginia
in need; Millennials stayed in Virginia, in a position of relative strength and
privilege.
Saturday, February 5, 2022
Will the Law Prevail? AGs as Celebrities and Public Servants
Ken Cuccinelli, who served as deputy secretary of the US
Department of Homeland Security after his term as Virginia’s Attorney General
(2010-2014), was perhaps a prototypical Tea Party Republican politician; but
his term in office did not rock the status quo. A practicing patent attorney,
he came from a golden age of law practice, when the American Bar Association
was supreme. Opinions differed between liberals and conservatives, but the
predominant trend was to empower the people through choice and autonomy; even
if it varied from scientific research and planning favored in the immediate
postwar era.
In the role of Attorney General, Cuccinelli’s work was
informed by strict textualism as a servant of the state, rather than a judicial
philosophy informed by groups such as the Federalist Society. As Attorney
General, Ken Cuccinelli deferred to the legislature to repeal the
one-handgun-a-month limit. This was a bipartisan effort: federal background
checks instituted in the late 1990’s had reduced the importance of this
purchase limit.
The status quo had definitely changed when Cuccinelli’s
successor, Mark Herring (D) refused to defend Virginias’s traditional marriage
law in the lead-up to Obergefell vs Hodges (2015); this deference to the
federal courts was viewed as unprecedented in Virginia’s history. In
retrospect, Herring’s choice has been seen as a decisive, if polarizing moment.
At the time, defense of state laws and practices in the Federal Courts was
widely seen as key function of the Attorney General’s office: “my Virginia,
right or wrong”. Last year, former Governor Ralph Northam (D) never clarified
why he endorsed incumbent Attorney General Mark Herring’s Democratic Primary
opponent, leaving Virginians to guess the reason why: was it his judicial
activism? Was he not progressive enough?
As former Attorney General Mark Herring was on his way out,
he left his successor Jason Miyares (R) a suit against the Town of Windsor for
racially-discriminatory policing practices. This again was a first; as in the
past a gentlemen’s agreement would have been achieved between local government
and the state, well before the courts would become involved.
Bipartisan consensus is harder to achieve today, and the
much-feared swing-state pendulum of diametrically opposite policies had arrived
in Virginia. For a short time in 2020 after universal background checks for gun
purchases became law again in Virginia (under pain of felony offense), I
considered opening an online clearinghouse to handle these transfers; I’m glad
I didn’t, since I would’ve gone out of business. Citing their own
interpretations of the Second Amendment, the vast majority of rural and
suburban Commonwealths’ Attorneys (county DA’s) decided not to prosecute private
transactions done in accordance with prior law.
Newly-inaugurated Attorney General Jason Miyares promised to
take politics out of the office. Even if he avoids going on stage in the
national Republican Party spotlight, his judicial upbringing will guide his
work. Born in 1976, the Federalist Society was active on Virginia law school
campuses when he arrived at the College of William and Mary. This organization
is now seen as an alternative to the American Bar Association, which critics
claim to have become too liberal (i.e. defense-friendly) on criminal justice
issues.
As the alt-right has taken to embrace chaotic, disorderly
forms of personal liberty; he stuck his stake in the position of law-and-order.
To him, freedom and support of law enforcement are complementary, not contrary.
During his campaign, Miyares spoke from the steps of specific courthouses where
criminal assailants were given light sentences. Son of a Cuban immigrant, he
contrasted the terror of Cuba’s secret police knocking at the door, with America’s
love of neighborhood spirit.
He wants to be your local prosecutor, too; and has
asked the legislature for joint jurisdiction with locally-elected
Commonwealths’ Attorneys. If they won’t prosecute, Jason Miyares will. The
changes could take effect as soon as July. In Fairfax County, the most populous
jurisdiction in Virginia, and located just outside of DC, Steve Descano was
elected as a progressive Commonwealth’s Attorney in the anti-Trump wave of
2019. His predecessor left the
Democratic Party in protest. Descano has proven himself to be a hothead with a temper, easy enough to be triggered. While there are other “woke” prosecutors in
the inner suburbs, the joint jurisdiction bill was about Descano, who seems
easy enough to topple in what will be a raucous Fairfax County 2023 Democratic
Primary.
How does the Attorney General put politics and individual
philosophy back into the box it came from? Especially when popular elections
are involved, these elements become deeply engrained in the interpretation and
enforcement of laws. Two suggestions emerge from my experience with the
engineering profession: Reinstate the fraternity-sorority of state bar
membership by emphasizing core principles of “equality and justice for all”. Matters
affecting governance within a state must be handled by local stakeholders; they
cannot be outsourced overseas or to BigLaw; to do otherwise is to lose nuance,
continuity, and collaboration. In this way, duty to the profession of law would
supersede the temporal incentives of playing politics from the Attorney
General’s office.
Saturday, November 13, 2021
Voting Matters: The High Turnout Virginia Races
On a recent Tuesday night, Virginia just broke one of the
longest statewide Democratic voting streaks in the nation, on par with California
and New York. The oft-presumed blue state, which had not elected a statewide Republican
since 2009, appeared quite red with a sweep of statewide offices. With just three statewide offices, in addition
to the two senators and the Presidential vote, these races have become
high-stake affairs; and down-ballot offices coming with national notoriety.
The Democratic Party bench appears much weaker than before.
Former Governor Doug Wilder, a Democrat, wisely criticized incumbents Terry
McAuliffe, running for a second, non-consecutive, term as Governor; and Mark
Herring, running for a third term as Attorney General, for blocking the advancement
of new leaders. Congresswomen Abigail Spanberger and Elaine Luria represent future
statewide potential; it seems unlikely that recently-elected Northern Virginia
progressives could mount a successful statewide campaign.
The Party of Virginia’s Attorney General
Weeks before Incoming Attorney General Jason Miyares was
elected, “Woke Prosecutors” found themselves under investigation for misuse of
position, retaliation, neglect of office, and neglect of state law. Outgoing
Attorney General Mark Herring seemed to be more interested in national issues,
such as abortion, than what was happening in his own Loudoun County backyard. Prior
to Mark Herring’s narrow 2013 election were a string of five one-term
Republican Attorneys General who each sought higher office. Progressives handed
Jason Miyares, 45 years young, fuel to feed his political ambitions.
Solid South or Something New?
Democrats held the Virginia House of Delegates for 2 years
before losing it in this month’s election. Their last hold of the chamber
lasted the entire 20th century. Followed by 18 years of Republican
leadership, these long tenures reflect the political stability of the Solid
South. The recent, liberal Democratic Party majority chose confrontation, and
the brute force of narrow statehouse votes, over lasting collaboration. Their
leaders are now paying the price.
It would be premature to assume that the legislative “Class
of 2019” was a mere blip on the Republicans’ rightful legislative dynasty. Prior
to the Trump presidency, Republicans held a supermajority in the House of
Delegates. Court-ordered redistricting allowed Democrats to gain seats, and
suburban voters soured against the Republican Party during Trump’s presidency. Concerningly,
today’s new and thin Republican majority has no representation in the first two
rings of counties surrounding Washington, DC, and a scant two seats in the
third ring; although Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin fares from Great Falls, an
upscale district along the Potomac River. These growing Northern Virginia
suburbs are at risk of becoming a one-party region.
A characteristic of the Solid South is the maintenance of
social hierarchy, with the proven effect of limiting class mobility. Incumbent
businesses are protected, creating a drag on productivity and economic growth. At
the end of Massive Resistance to desegregation, conservative Democratic Party
leader Harry Byrd had a choice: hunker down or embrace change. He chose the
latter (although his statue would lose its place at the Virginia Capitol). This
libertarianism, once favored by both major parties in Virginia, is found in
areas such as gambling, alcohol; and business regulation, such as limiting
non-compete clauses and favoring the right-to-work. As liberal Democrats have
shied away from economic liberties, Republicans are in a better position than
before to secure the votes of educated, suburban, pro-business moderates. Blue Virginia noted that upscale, educated,
politically-balanced districts within Democratic-voting counties had extraordinary
turnout in this year’s election.
Virginia Senate Changes Little
With a 21-19 split in favor of Democrats, and a spirit of
collegiality, one observer quipped that the Senate Democrats would work better
with House Republicans than with the Democratic Party progressives who led the
last two legislative sessions.
The Democratic Party leadership in the Virginia Senate might
prefer to work on compromises to Glenn Youngkin’s agenda, rather than acting as
a stonewall. In this later case, two swing-voting Democrats from Fairfax City and
Richmond, with the incoming Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears, a Republican,
would hold immense power in government. In the last year, faced with a single
defection from party line voting, marijuana and policing bills were decided on
tiebreaking votes in the Virginia Senate. Outgoing Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax
tipped these bills in favor of Democrats; on future tie votes, Winsome Sears
would tip the bills the other way.
“RINO” Hunters Decide that Voting Matters
Virginia is home to many low-propensity and fickle conservative
voters that continually vexed the Republican party. Geographically, they are
concentrated in rural areas west of Richmond. They came out for John McCain in
2008, but were overwhelmed by Barack Obama’s supporters. They stayed home in
2012, when they could have won; then came out for Trump, but were again
outvoted. It was to this group that Trump, in his fury, suggested boycotting future
elections. This year, Republicans made a concerted effort to get these
dissatisfied citizens to vote. On gun
and religious forums that appeal to this demographic, authors reminded readers
to scrape off their bumper stickers reading: “My Governor is an Idiot”.
In a high-turnout election with six weeks of in-person early
voting, Republicans prevailed, challenging the orthodoxy that increase ballot
access favors Democrats. The 45-day early voting period, a now-permanent product
of COVID-19 countermeasures, represents a unique opportunity for Republican Presidential
candidates: they can ground-stomp for Virginia votes in October, before turning
to traditional swing states in the last weeks of the race.
Saturday, July 24, 2021
A Decade of Jewish Existentialism
Source: Humans of JNF (www.jnf.org)
Long before the rise of Adolf Hitler, establishing a Jewish
state became the rallying cry of Zionists. Subject to the Jewish Question for
centuries in Europe and the Middle East, through persecution, exile, pogrom and
finally, systematic extermination; it appeared that other remedy could suffice
for the Jewish people.
Trouble existed from the beginning. From 1948 to 1967, Jews
lost access to their historical monuments and worship sites as Jerusalem came
under Palestinian control. The Jewish state was tentative, perhaps a false
promise or aberration in the course of history. After Adolf Hitler died in his
bunker, many Jews continued to live a psychological holocaust, resulting in
secularization, loss of ties to Judaism and the Jewish community.
Survivors of the Holocaust were prolific in writing and
thinking in the post-war decade, reviews and analysis of which can be found in
the Arts section of The Wall Street Journal. Where was G-d, who let this
horrible thing happen? What about the psyche of Jews of America, still excluded
from certain neighborhoods, social clubs, and held at an arm’s distance by
those in power? Could it happen here, considering the sensational
Rosenburg trial that conflated Jewish tenets with communist ideology?
In contemporary evangelical thinking, the Six-Day War of
1967 was fulfilment of a biblical prophecy. Outnumbered by Islamic forces, Israeli
soldiers defended and overpowered the assault that was predicted to end the existence
of the Jewish state. In the following decades, Israel became a beacon
guaranteeing the survival of the Jewish people. The state received persecuted
Jews from the Soviet Union, and from Ethiopia.
It has become popular to criticize the existence of Israel. The
younger generation of Americans do not know that Israel’s survival was far from
certain; or that Israel is merely the size of New Jersey, requiring a strong
defensive posture against Hamas’ missiles and guerilla tactics. Nor do they
consider that Islamic allies have not offered broad-based residency visas for
Palestinians and Israeli Arabs.
Saturday, May 29, 2021
Heads Up: John Warner; Exxon
The Virginia Senator
John Warner’s career in the US Senate
bookended the Republican Party’s short era of dominance in Virginia. He was
narrowly elected in 1978, in a state which favored conservative Democrats; and retired
from the US Senate in 2009. He was certainly part of the Defense establishment,
which once held economic and political power in Virginia; the submarine USS
John Warner (SSN-785) is named in his honor. He drew support from across the
political spectrum, running unopposed in 2002. Before his retirement, the
nascent Tea Party movement branded this popular moderate as a RINO (Republican
in Name Only). John Warner was indeed a RINO: “Reasonable, Intelligent, Nice
and Open-minded”.
Warner's death comes at an
inflection point as the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) attempts to rebuilt
from a lost decade of nominating Tea Party and Trumpist candidates, who failed
to win any statewide election since 2009. If proof is found in pudding, these
rural hardliners typically lost their November elections by 10 points or more;
while mainstream candidates in 2013 and 2014 fell just one point short of
victory. The RPV is optimistic for this year’s races, as the nominees are both diverse
and chosen by suburban voters, who have marched towards the Democrats in the
past decade. John Warner was richly eulogized by the nominees, showing that the late Senator is a model to be followed.
Exxon Going Green?
This one is personal to me, as
I dumped this laggard of a stock last year. Shareholders put Jeffrey Ubben of
Value Act Capital onto Exxon's Board of Directors, in hopes of bringing the
large corporation up to par in the future of energy. Ubben's unique thinking is
that an "oil company" can be part of a "Responsible
Investing" (ESG-focused) portfolio. For other petroleum companies,
the transition to green energy is nothing new. BP (British Petroleum) had long
styled itself as "beyond petroleum", embracing a green sunflower as its
logo.
Saturday, May 15, 2021
The Fascist Moment
In the manifestos of various nutjobs, there is a common theme favoring increased control of society, particularly in areas of immigration and family policy. To the disenfranchised, these radical solutions offer false hope of increased status and wealth. It would be easy to ignore the effect of such writings, but for the fact that crazed manifestos have enabled great evils in the past, from Mein Kampf to the writings of Dylan Klebold. Dare I say, we did have a Beta-Test of fascism in America, an unintended consequence of the national coronavirus response strategy.
At a fundamental level, fascists are miserable because
you are outwardly happy. Their grievances often come from perception of deficit
in their social lives, and they fantasize ways to remove joy and spontaneity
from relationships, including hook-up culture. As an example of pattern
rupture, the year-long government shutdowns of “non-essential” businesses
such as bars and concert venues in many states may permanently alter what it
means “to go out” for an evening. While social activities have moved from
public spaces to private settings (at one service academy, daytime liberty on
weekends resulted in a 15% COVID infection rate after just two months),
researchers have found increased malaise among young adults. This may be
confounded with other factors like lack of hiring in well-paying jobs.
Halting immigration from Africa, the Middle East, and Asia has featured in multiple
extremist manifestos. The national border is sealed with policies
reminiscent of the isolationist 1930s. Based on the adjusted travel patterns of
my peer group, I would surmise that most international travelers and immigrants
today are coming to the US from Europe, rather than the Global South.
Record Gun Sales- Gun ownership has increased, especially among women and
racial minorities Some Leftist groups have embraced gun ownership, often
as a response to the outwardly firearm-toting Far Right groups. It is
impossible to stereotype who might be armed today. Notably, the new
generation of firearm owners, predominantly urban or suburban dwellers, have purchased
firearms for reasons other than hunting. Marksmanship, tactical training and
self-defense have grown in prominence: this disassembled militia appears in manifesto
writings.
Inequitable Health Outcomes- Higher
COVID death rates among disfavored groups represents a racially and
socioeconomically unequal loss of life. COVID infection crossed all walks of
life, as seen in how the virus first spread through the global jet-set. But those
with less reserves, in wealth or health, were more likely to perish. Social Darwinist policies are frequently invoked
in manifestos.
Discussing birth rates during a prolonged
crisis is a difficult subject, because of conflicting mainstream philosophies.
On one hand, it is seen as the “responsible choice” to delay childbearing until
one’s socioeconomic situation improves. In the other stream of thought, childbearing
is life’s most essential activity, and minimal constraints should apply: in the
religious context, this would include marriage between biological parents. As
many of my friends are in this stage of life, I am interested to see how
countermeasures applied in the Spring of 2020, such as no-visitation policies
in maternity wards, affected the rate of home births; or if it caused couples
to be discouraged, resulting in a birth rate drop this past Winter. What the
evidence shows is that couples have postponed childrearing, except for the
wealthiest young adults (see Refinery29, Insider). Survival of the fittest,
much?
Reversion to traditional gender roles:
Celebration of the family puts a softer edge on the general bluntness of fascist
policies. Women, though, tend to bear the strain in domestic workload and
missed career opportunities. As modern resources that enabled the two-income household
became unavailable; be it daycare centers, grandparents, foreign au-pairs, and,
yes, public schools; one parent had to step back from full-time work. In the
past, it was assumed that a woman would take up domestic responsibilities;
today, income, stability, and now, essentialness, are hashed out between the
couple. Egalitarianism is to let the math speak for itself, and most often, Dad
keeps pursuing his career.
Hopefully, the experience of the past year
and a half has debunked any thoughts that fascism is a viable solution to the
political difficulties in the United States. High-priority issues that have
come to the fore-front in national discussion are learning and skills loss,
alleviation of childhood poverty, and newfound respect for individual freedom. There appears to be bipartisan agreement in
saying “never again”, with regard to the challenges people and the nation have
endured.
Saturday, April 17, 2021
Appalachian Serenade
For at least the past decade, New Hampshire has been attracting
conservative and libertarian-minded individuals from the Northeast, through the
Free State Project and personal initiative. Strong gun rights, no state income
tax, and boundless opportunities for rugged outdoor activities provide the
incentives. The Granite State’s rural areas vote Democratic, while the more educated
and urbanized southern part of New Hampshire, closest to Boston, prefer
Republicans. This inversion of modern political trends can also be found in
another mountainous state: West Virginia.
Lest anyone forget, West Virginia was a solidly Democratic
state until Al Gore and John Kerry were nominated by the Democratic Party in
2000 and 2004. A legacy of coal-field patronage and low-wage labor resulted in
a highly-unionized workforce and economically progressive politics. Until Obama’s
“War on Coal”, it was unthinkable that West Virginia would make efforts to appease
the staunch Republican appendage of the Eastern Panhandle, closest to
Washington, DC. It already had competitive advantages in being home to the
states’ highest average incomes, federal employment, two interstate highways,
and a commuter rail line. But nobody can bring back coal: Virginia’s recent
elimination of a coal production tax credit, which was was cut for economically
ineffectiveness (the environmental reasons are still too touchy to mention),
was but one signal that coal is dead or dying, and that clear minds needed to
create a new strategy for economic growth in Appalachia.
West Virginia’s Governor Jim Justice (himself a Democrat
turned Republican) passed a Right-to-Work bill, once unthinkable in a strong
labor state. More interestingly, he has proposed eliminating the state’s income
tax. Just west of Washington Dulles International Airport, the freeway splits. The
left turn is for Route 7 /Harry Byrd Highway, into the prosperous horse-and-wine
country, which is also growing as suburban bedroom communities. The right turn
for Route 9 is the road less travelled. The narrow, meandering road heads into the
Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia, which lies directly north and parallel to
Route 7. Using radically pro-growth policies, and seizing on the current political
turmoil and stagnant growth in non-metropolitan Virginia, Governor Jim Justice’s
goal is to make his road the more travelled road. The experience of New Hampshire
shows this to be a real possibility.
Saturday, February 6, 2021
The Educated Working Class
Despite the vocal assertions of mainstream media, student loan debt is not killing millennials as a whole- 2/3 do not have loans as they have paid them off, acquired scholarships or grants (such as the GI Bill for veterans), or did not attend college. Furthermore, the average balance for those with outstanding loans is a reasonable $8000. (The conservative National Review provided these stats). But there are 6% with over $100,000 in loans, and likely a larger group with high five-figure debt: we could say a solid demographic quintile have large outstanding student loans.
While the college graduate still out earns the non-college grad, the wealth gap has closed. At age 35, the skilled tradesman has a higher net worth than the loan-taking college graduate
An economic realignment of the tech and COVID eras has occurred. White collar unionization at workplaces such as Google is emerging. This reflects the precarious nature of employment: contract workers without a sufficient war chest (cash reserve) to mitigate the risks of self employment or small business entrepreneurship.
A decline in entry-level positions makes it more difficult for new graduates to deploy learned skills in a meaningful way. Such self-employment is a principal part of the skilled trades. In the trades, the “get a good job” mantra could bring a middle class income, but creating your own job was the ultimate goal. White-collar professionals must now reckon with the change.
Politically, what can be done? Portable health insurance ( through the Affordable Care Act) is a key enabler. Universal Basic Income would assist in lieu of unemployment benefits
I advocate for student debt relief through interest rate reduction, rather than cancellation of principal. This is the fairest approach considering that a majority of students do make compromises to manage the cost of education, such as attending community college as a commuter student, or pursuing part-time studying while working.
The college grad is in a different cultural milieu than the traditional working class, but its economic standing is not too far. It is a force to reckon with, electing progressive candidates. The hippie generation recovered its economic standing during the 1980s-2000 bull market; some college educated millennials from the comfortable middle class may not.
There exists dichotomies in political theory: working class vs rich, highly educated vs not; as well as labor vs management.
Senator Marco Rubio, a Republican, has called for a multiethnic working class party. Most likely speaking of Economically secure part of the working class, holding rare or marketable skills, who is in control of their work life.
Saturday, November 28, 2020
Nuances of Law and Order
This year, urban protests and general unrest in society created a mixed reaction in the electorate. In some parts of the country, Trump’s rhetoric of liberal politicians “destroying the suburbs” fell on deaf ears. Elsewhere, it was a resounding success. I have a theory why: as we near the middle of the Suburban Century (summed up by Mark Clapson in 1992), what happens in the inner-city does not physically or vicariously affect the lives of citizens in diverse, self-contained and far-flung suburbs.
Virginia Beach, VA
The Virginia Beach Oceanfront serves as the quintessential, walkable downtown for a military-heavy suburb. This spring and summer, tensions were high as protestors called attention to longstanding law-and-order policing on the beach. Over the Labor Day weekend, local group BLM 757 held its “Shut Down the Oceanfront 3.0” protest. True to form, the police gave citations to protestors who drifted from the sidewalk into the street. As a result of afternoon and night-time activity, families chose alternative locations for rest and relaxation; combined with COVID, this proved harmful to the ecosystem of local beachfront businesses.
At election time, Virginia
Beach voted for Joe Biden and Representative Elaine Luria, a Democrat. On the
same ticket, incumbent mayor Bobby Dyer, a Republican, was re-elected with 57%
of the vote; and “RK” Kowalewitch, a conservative whose campaign signs read: “Law
and Order”, won another 5% of the electorate.
Suburban Richmond, VA
The Virginia State Capitol and
Supreme Court building in Richmond were targeted by protestors as symbols of conservative
political leadership. With much of downtown boarded up, the city provided a backdrop
for political advertising. The jarring images did not ‘tip the needle’ in
nearby Henrico and Chesterfield counties, who chose Biden and Representative Abigail
Spanberger (D) by large margins. Both counties are home to a mix of employment
options; heavy industry, light industry, service and some professional work. Freeways
criss-cross these suburbs, linking towards northern and southern markets, and
the international airport and deep-sea port of Hampton roads. Richmond, home to
state government, several universities, and museums, is somewhat irrelevant to
new suburbanites. Overall, there was no partisan change in Virginia’s
congressional representation this year.
Suburban Atlanta, GA
The land that served as a
springboard for one-time House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and other conservative
Republicans, helped to tip Georgia for Joe Biden. For 20 years, the Greater
Atlanta area has been the nexus of a New Great Migration of African-Americans
from the North to the South; the impact in politics, seen by the flipping of
congressional seats, is very recent. Atlanta is a city of the New South; sprawling
development centers on its record-breaking international airport and its
freeways. The firewall between city and suburbs may be crumbling: while decades
ago, suburban Gwinnett County blocked subway construction, a referendum for a
transit tax may have passed, pending recount.
Los Angeles, CA
California is no
friend of Donald Trump. But recent years of excessive solicitude given to drug
pushers, car thieves and vandals struck a nerve in working and middle-class
communities across racial lines. Since the Rodney King riots of 1992, Asian-American
small business owners have been concerned about inadequate police protection
offered to their communities. Legislation to “defund the police” dug up old
pain. Voters in the state narrowly reaffirmed limits on affirmative action in
the state, which were first put into effect in 1996; and sent new Republican
representatives to Congress.
Long Island, NY
During the George W. Bush years, as war deaths mounted, these traditionalist, conservative-of-the-gut counties questioned its allegiance to the GOP. But this year, as in 2016, their hometown son, Donald J. Trump of Queens, NY, did not produce the electoral revulsion seen in other suburbs of similar educational and demographic profiles.
While it appears that
North Shore Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) will retain his long-time seat, his Republican
opponent led in early counting. On the blue-collared South Shore, Andrew
Garbarino (R) is expected to succeed retiring Rep. Peter King. Lee Zeldin (R)
holds his seat in affluent Suffolk County. Nichole Malliotakis (R) has unseated
Max Rose (D) in representing Staten Island and part of Brooklyn. These latter
three seats were considered toss-ups going into the election. The Long Island
suburbs are home to well-paid public servants and tradespeople of a vibrant New
York City; COVID shutdowns and Bill de Blasio’s social permissiveness cast a
malaise across white-ethnic New York. Upward mobility of strivers, from
immigrant grandparents to civil service to Wall Street, created an unwavering
patriotism and belief in the institutions of America. This legacy was
challenged in 2020 by politicians on the left, who maintain that this upward
mobility was not fueled by grit, but by systemic racism and unchecked privilege.
Sunday, September 6, 2020
Flash: That Time a Kennedy Lost
“Kennedy Loses”, a “Massachusetts First”, announces
The Hill. That Kennedy is Joseph Patrick Kennedy
III, grandson of Senator and US Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, who lost a
Senate primary in Massachusetts this past week. “This isn’t a time
for waiting, for sitting on the sidelines,” the now 39-year old
congressman announced as he entered the race against incumbent Senator Ed
Markey.
By running this race, Joe Kennedy was thought to be tacking
one step ahead of 46-year old Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley, a potential
primary contestant for a future vacant Senate seat, who has a national profile.
Joe Kennedy wagered his congressional seat, making this contest an
all-or-nothing stake. He started with a
significant lead in polling, which recently had flipped for the incumbent. Kennedy’s
strengths were said to be in working-class and minority communities, yet
ultimately he lost in other traditionally working-class areas like seaside Gloucester.
Characteristic confidence and charisma did not save
Joe Kennedy. Ed Markey, 74, outmaneuvered the red-headed youngster on the issue
of youth. He obtained endorsements from progressive environmental groups, and
ultimately claimed college towns like Cambridge, Amherst, and Dartmouth; in
addition to Boston.
In New England, there is a certain respect for established
systems and patience, and waiting one’s turn. While the 1773 Tea Party took
place in Boston, the modern-day fighting words of “Defeat, Retire, Kick Out”
are not used in Massachusetts. In contrast to the West and New South,
non-compete clauses are still enforced in the state, preventing the type of
start-up culture seen in California. In a political machine, it is expected
that participants start young, and wait their turn before advancing; in
exchange for the benefits of incumbency. Instead of congratulating Kennedy for “sticking
it to the man” and holding the veteran politician accountable, one commenter
stated that Kennedy “put his personal ambition above the welfare of the country
and waged a pointless and divisive campaign that diverted money and attention
from places where both were needed”.
Ed Markey, who had served in Congress since the 1970’s,
won election to the Senate in 2013 to fill John Kerry’s seat, as the latter became
Secretary of State. (Joe Kennedy was born in 1980, and entered Congress in 2012).
Markey entered Congress at a time when the average age in the body was
decreasing. This anomaly occurred from 1960 to 1980; meaning that later Boomers
and Gen X’ers did not continue the trend of youthful participation in politics.
It is possible for Joe Kennedy to fail upwards, as there will be state races to
compete for in 2022. Notable, no close Kennedy family has run for governor.
Saturday, September 5, 2020
It’s a Sid Davis Production
Saturday, June 27, 2020
State Capitals and Railroads: A Historical Symbiosis
Tuesday, June 2, 2020
Good Intentions versus Bad Actors
This weekend certainly had the flavor of turbulent 1968-1969. Had I posted this sooner, I would've spoken too soon. Many of the recent protests over Floyd George's death have been orderly, especially during the sunlight hours. Others have been disorderly, characterized by arrests and the use of tear gas, but nothing beyond the pale. However, during the cover of night, there has been arson and looting of boutique shops and liquor stores. Peaceful protest is a keystone of democracy. Rioting has an ugly history of suppressing the rights and security of marginalized groups, the destruction of Tulsa's Black Wall Street at the hands of white supremacists being one of many examples.
This last point is salient, because this week has seen many privileged individuals joining in the destruction of other peoples' property. These rioters truly believe they are advancing the goals of social justice, as they destroy minority-operated businesses. If history is any lesson, neighborhoods damaged in three hours by the bricks and gasoline of "social justice warriors" will stagnate for three decades. It is the underprivileged residents who will live among the burned-out buildings and lack of amenities. This was the case of Washington, DC in the aftermath of the 1968 riots.
Elected officials and community leaders, in both parties, are abdicating the responsibility to mediate in civil unrest, which requires both understanding the concern at hand, while demanding the rule of law and order. This was shown by Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan's successful handling of Baltimore's Freddie Gray riots in 2015. Minnesota, the generally harmonious Scandinavia of America, was ill-prepared to deal with urban riots, and the genie left the bottle.
Among intellectuals, moral relativism has taken precedence over absolute rights. "Arson does not cancel out a murder", or "this is justified", they say. When this thinking enters political philosophy, inaction prevails. Learned politicians vacillate over 'systemic injustice' and 'inclusiveness', instead of building practical affirmative action plans that would get immediate results. This weekend, looting was not confined to inner-city areas, but spread to affluent, educated suburbs like Bethesda, MD.
Sunday, May 17, 2020
The Classroom and Coronavirus
Monday, May 11, 2020
Coronavirus: Price Gouging Works for Me, but…
Saturday, January 4, 2020
Go Ahead, Virginia, Ratify the ERA
Monday, November 18, 2019
Good riddance, Mr. Cuomo?
This struck a chord with me, because I watched my peers, born and raised on New York’s Long Island, Staten Island, and in Westchester County leave the Empire State by the handful. They graduated college and set out for the South, particularly Florida. With home purchases and families started, they aren’t coming back soon. Weather was not the issue. It was housing costs, traffic delays, career prospects, and taxes; overall cost and quality of living.
Immigration from around the world masks the effect of this exodus; it is the difference between New York’s resilient dynamism and Rust Belt decay. But New York has made large investments in its youth; to include college tuition in recent years. Why is the Governor so willing to see the future disappear? I would point to entrenched constituencies who believe that things are “good enough” under current leadership. The critical mass demanding better, the citizen voters who put Andrew Cuomo’s father out of office in 1994, have decamped for other states, taking their New York educations, pensions and real estate proceeds with them.
