Gen X Still Remembers the Great Recession: A Virginia Chronicle

 

Having spent their lives fending for themselves, the theory goes, Generation X is naturally conservative. In the New York Times, Ross Douthat further speculates that this generation came of age in the 1980s and 1990s, a time of broad-based conservative and neo-liberal reforms that delivered public order and individual prosperity.

But exit polls in Terry McAuliffe’s two runs for Virginia Governor tell a different story locally. In his 2013 run, the 30-40 demographic voted strongest for the Democrat, while the under-30’s went for his unsuccessful Tea Party Republican opponent, Ken Cuccinelli. In his 2021 campaign, McAuliffe overperformed with the 40-50 demographic (who were 30-somethings in 2013); and underperformed with the 30-40 group, ultimately losing the race. This inversion of national trends perplexed me: why were our Gen X-ers more liberal than their national peers, while our millennials tilted to the right?

Did liberal GenX-ers move to Virginia when then-Governor Tim Kaine declared in 2008 that “Old Virginny is Dead”? Aside from the Democrats who held statewide elected office, Virginia for the next decade would still retain a distinctively conservative political culture. No, it was not Mr. Kaine’s come-on, but one facilitated by the Great Recession. I have said before that 1987 was the worst year to be born in post-WWII America; indeed, in the face of mass layoffs and unemployment, there were few jobs for recent college graduates in 2009-2010. Washington, DC, however, stood out from the rest. The Federal Government was hiring, and the Obama Administration was in-sourcing some analyst and policy roles that had previously been outsourced to contractors. Like California in the 1930’s, Washington, DC drew newcomers from across the country to these government positions.

Where would these newcomers live? Washington, DC’s outer suburbs, whose housing bubble had burst. Newly-built homes in cul-de-sac subdivisions were available to rent at affordable prices. Virginia’s conservative policies meant that the building boom was concentrated here, rather than in the equidistant Maryland suburbs. A general rebound in home prices benefitted homeowners in Manassas and Dumfries greatly. But that was a curse if they were renters.

Virginia Democrats in elected office tend to be either fiscally or socially conservative. In recent years, however, these suburbs are the home of the most vocal progressives in the Virginia Legislature. There was Democratic-Socialist Lee Carter, the liberal enforcer Haya Ayala, and transgender Delegate Danica Roem. Carter and Ayala are no longer in elected office; their fast ambition for statewide office ended in loss.

To explain away natural conservativism of Virginia millennials, there is a practical matter that won’t repeat in future elections, hopefully. Older millennials, especially mothers displaced from the workforce by lack of childcare options, are the largest beneficiaries of Governor Glenn Youngkin’s promise of “no more school lockdowns” for COVID-19. Tellingly, he won the “parent vote” by 12 points.   

In 2013, I thought it was the military vote that pushed the youth vote to the right. Virginia always had a base of young conservatives: military members from deep-Southern states: they preferred Bob Dole over Bill Clinton; John McCain over Barack Obama. After the War on Terror began, it became commonplace for servicemembers to keep their hometown residency, instead of switching it to their Virginia duty station. Thus, Virginia Republicans lost room for electoral error.

The parents of Northern Virginia millennials purchased homes long ago at affordable prices in now highly-desirable inner-suburban neighborhoods. In the 1990’s, they might have bought into a state college tuition prepayment plan for their children; an investment with an incredible effective rate-of-return. At that time, Governor George Allen successfully pivoted employment in the Cold War-Era Defense Sector towards the nascent I.T. Industry, avoiding the job losses and stagnation that hobbled Southern California for years. His fondness for market-based solutions finally modernized Virginia’s segregation-era economic system; a regulatory paradigm that kept people down, rather than help them grow.  Virginia’s youngsters were on trajectory for the professional-class: those with liberal, creative interests moved to the power cities of their respective careers. Virginia retained capital and infrastructure-heavy firms that thrive in a loose regulatory environment, such as banking and weapons manufacturing; the quants grew up and stayed at home, at least until financially stable. There is nothing like a libertarian living in their parents’ basement: childhood bedrooms offered short commutes and free rent.      

For aspiring young professionals, living in the City of Washington’s older housing allows for affordable options such as a shared bedroom. For those who work nights in the service sector, the minimum wage is progressive. Across the Potomac River in Virginia, the newer apartment stock of the Clarendon-centered “polo shirt corridor” tends to rent itself to young adults in higher-paying jobs such as finance and consulting. While the corridor votes solidly Democratic, Progressivism has no home here. This may change with the establishment of Amazon’s HQ2. Right-to-Work brought Amazon to Virginia; but ironically, all those Amazon tech workers might, through elections in representative democracy, spell the end of Right-to-Work in Virginia.  

Thus comes my political theory: While Gen X-ers came to Virginia in need; Millennials stayed in Virginia, in a position of relative strength and privilege.