Vacation Plans from 2019

While on Navy Reserve duty in Naples, Italy, I was able to make weekend trips to the ruins of Pompeii and the town of Kocevje, Slovenia in January 2020. A week later, Italy and the US Navy’s Sixth Fleet began lockdown procedures. That was the last trip for several years. From March 2020, and on paper until mid-2022, my employer enforced a 50-mile restriction of movement. This was a mild limitation compared to the total lockdown of merchant vessels, but did affect my ability to plan for a safe vacation. On return from outside the area, I would have to remain quarantined for two weeks. The message- go big on vacation, or stay at home. I stayed home. If vacation destinations – save for natural wonders - are about the people, then the immediate post-lockdown era was going to be a letdown. To summarize the ennui bluntly, the New York Times stated that hospitality became hostile. There were many underlying factors- from a labor shortage, transportation shortage, and supply shortage to a fickle customer base, and possible owner’s liability for a localized COVID-19 breakout. My impulse during this time was to make myself busier. While working ashore, I took a weekend job onboard a dinner cruise boat in Norfolk, VA; when it was ready to relaunch in the summer of 2021. Before COVID, the vessel had been at the center of the city’s social life; however, I saw that the clientele had changed: suburbanites had become accustomed to entertaining guests in their homes and backyards; and on their personal boats. Perhaps, life for the privileged set became more insular than outwardly focused. For me, planning interesting things to do on vacation seemed daunting, when “everything has changed”. Nevertheless, there are vacation plans from 2019 that are still good to go: a planned hike on the C & O Canal in Maryland, and a visit to the newly-built Christendom College chapel in Front Royal, Virginia. Nature and religion; the two stalwarts in a changing world. We are in what is called the “Fourth Pandemic Year”- the time elapsed since early 2020- now represents 5% of a lifespan. It’s time to live your best life.

Why I Recommend College Degrees for Mariners: the COVID-19 Pivot

From March 2020, and continuing for the next two years, mariners around the world have found their time ashore to be severely curtailed due to COVID-19 prevention policies. That these restrictions on lower-risk shipboard arrivals continue (small crews, sufficient quarantine time between ports at sea), even as higher-risk air tourism has opened up (despite large aircraft and no quarantine time) is a topic for another post. I was working in the Military Sealift Command headquarters during this time, and have only made aware of the full extent of shipboard restrictions fairly recently. Cancellation of shore leave posed an acute problem on the East Coast, where mariners expected to be in their “home port” at least two days per week. Being a homeported mariner for the Military Sealift Command meant a civil servant’s work for a civil servant’s pay. What constituted restriction of movement varied by Navy command. In accordance with Health Protection Condition (HPCON) Level C, active-duty servicemembers were limited to on-base shopping and personal appointments, but could also provide care for their children and sleep at home. Which combatant ships maintained a “Gangway Up” order for mission-readiness likely remains classified. Military Sealift Command’s Admiral believed that civilian mariners should be ready to “deploy” to a ship for 120 days, without requiring time ashore. Indeed, the blanket order against shore leave was loosened after 120 days. But for the civilian mariners, 30 days at sea, or restricted to the ship, was a long stretch already. The Admiral came up through Naval Aviation, and would be familiar with expeditionary contractors who support high-tech equipment onboard aircraft carriers and at remote air bases. Some contractors even flew cargo helicopters from the decks of Military Sealift Command’s vessels. Those contractors were handsomely compensated for their work; and expected to deploy no more than half the year. Civil service mariners expect a steady pace of work, to sustain the long haul of their careers. Hiring freezes at most companies slowed the inevitable “suitcase parade” of departing crewmembers. Restrictions on commercial ship mariners were even more onerous than those at the Military Sealift Command. Nevertheless, those who could took their retirements; and those mariners with side-businesses took the opportunity to make that their full-time job. Real estate was booming; at least a dozen with those skills or social capital made the leap into work as real estate agents or home rehabbers. Because in-person work is required in maritime shore-based support roles, there were enough openings to accommodate college-educated mariners who wanted to work ashore.

The Great Shakedown

 Workers in the maritime industry were greatly affected by COVID-19, from restricted port visits to delayed crew changes and cruise-ship levels of virus transmission. As wages and pensions were generous compared to other industries, retirement and career realignment were viable options for a large part of the American seafaring workforce. What does the employment field look like today?

 

Deck Officers

Compared to the number of jobs available at the time, there was an oversupply of deck officers in Western countries this past decade. The issue was more acute at the third mate level, who are typically recent graduates. While maritime academies graduate fewer mates than engineers, deck officers have higher retention in the afloat maritime industry than engineers. The wave of COVID-era retirements unstuck the promotion pipeline in the deck department, and allows newer officers to take positions at their highest qualification.

 

Engineering Officers

In 2014, international regulatory changes came into effect, requiring newly-minted ship’s officers to hold at least a community college level of education. The maritime industry had an unusually linear path for promotion, from entry level to department head. Now, the employment pool of ship’s officers has been detached from the skilled labor pool, which used to send its members into the officer ranks with regularity.

On the demand side, more maritime-trained engineers are working ashore are than staying aboard ship. Industrial and facilities engineering disciplines had become neglected areas of concentration at most flagship universities. These hands-on programs were generally forgotten as engineering programs became more scientifically-oriented towards high-tech research and development. Someone needs to fill these jobs, and the career-oriented nature of maritime academies became the first stop for power plant, sophisticated equipment technician, and prototype employers.

 

Skilled Level

The most perplexing labor shortage at sea is the mid-level positions, the able seamen and enginemen. Perhaps the average age for this cohort had increased to 55; younger people were doing short stints at the entry level, or going for a college degree and an officer’s berth. The top unions for these workers did not suffer a pension collapse, as the American Maritime Officers’ union did in 2009, so these mid-levels were able to retire on schedule.  

The Navy and Coast Guard had been steady suppliers of skilled mariners, but shipping companies must compete with other veteran-friendly employers such as defense contractors and large-capital corporations.

It seems that these positions would be great targets for re-skilling workers displaced by deindustrialization. Someone has to pay for the training, though, whether it is state employment agencies, the GI Bill, employers, or largely out-of-pocket. Entry-level personnel will not commit to the expense until they are sure that the maritime field is right for them.

Employers expected recent maritime academy graduates to backfill these positions. During lean times, as recently as 2020, graduates of limited economic means went “before the mast” to begin earning family-sized paychecks, instead of waiting for an officer’s assignment. But when officer positions are readily available, it takes a lot of gaslighting (“you’re not ready…”, etc.) to get new graduates to take unlicensed positions- not an efficient or ethical strategy.     

 

Entry Level

Traditionally, the gatekeepers of entry-level, deep-sea maritime positions, such as union training schools and federal government agencies with ships, could offer entry-level positions to those with previous work experience. These prospective mariners would be expected to bring something to the table, professionally. Preferably, they had work experience on inland and fishing boats. If not, they could be a great cook, or have nighttime watch standing experience from the Army. But at this moment, the gatekeepers are recruiting at high school job fairs. Salaried employment, or fixed contracts, in the maritime industry, certainly beats the variable pay and unpredictable schedules of other employers, such as foodservice. The potential for upward mobility at sea is unparallel as well.

And the World Was Quiet

 

Going to sea enforced the habit of being overly prepared. Extra lightbulbs and batteries in a drawer at home, and at least a quart of milk in the refrigerator. One would not want to spend the night stuck without a provision. This preparedness came in handy last year, when retail store hours were greatly curtailed, and even so today, as 24-hour availability has become a rarity.  

This Christmas harkened back to olden times- and the status quo in Europe and much of the world. The stores are closed for Christmas, so prepare for your feast ahead of time, and be happy with what you have. Perfection ought to be redefined, from having what you dreamed of- whether it be that spice jar or box of cookies that is probably on backorder; to the resourcefulness of using, and enjoying, what is available at hand.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Break the Ice on Travel

 

I only realized the momentousness of the journey as I rode the drizzly waves on the Cape May-Lewes Ferry between Delaware and New Jersey. It was my first trip outside Virginia or DC since March 2020. During the heart of the COVID-19 pandemic, I simply had no need to travel for work, and national guidance advised against leisure travel. Airline flights? Forget about it; I heard enough stories about 4-leg transcontinental flights on routes that had once been non-stop. Hotels that once provided scrumptious breakfasts resorted to handing out bagged muffins “because of COVID”. In fact, until the vaccine was widely available, my employer documented all personal travel out of town, which would start a two-week isolation period upon return to work. Why travel?

Like after 9/11/01, enough time has elapsed so that some of the imposed travails of travelling- perhaps familiar to horse-and-buggy trail warriors in the 19^th century- have been lifted. Last weekend was an opportune time to visit New York; not Manhattan, but the Alma Mater just east on Long Island. Reflective of the times, the Alumni event was scheduled in May after loosening of CDC guidance; then cancelled in August on account of the Delta Variant spike; then resurrected in a low-key format after it was revealed that people had bought non-refundable airline tickets to travel.

Among the several dozen attendees, I was the sole long-haul, work-from-home person. I listened intently to the stories of international quarantine, and promotions earned as a result of others’ early retirements. Onboard ship, in a shipyard, or even in the design shop, the maritime field is very hands-on and relationship-oriented. It felt great to break out of a period of professional isolation, a phenomenon studied in rural doctors, scientists, and sole proprietors; but which now applies to millions of white-collar professionals who ground out their work from laptops at home. While work-from-home has received favorable reviews from workers and some managers, I wondered how many more months of value could be added when professionals were running on autopilot, without conferences, training, and collaboration. In just a weekend, a switch was flipped in me. By Monday, I registered to attend an upcoming workboat show in New Orleans.

The Fascist Moment

 In the manifestos of various nutjobs, there is a common theme favoring increased control of society, particularly in areas of immigration and family policy. To the disenfranchised, these radical solutions offer false hope of increased status and wealth. It would be easy to ignore the effect of such writings, but for the fact that crazed manifestos have enabled great evils in the past, from Mein Kampf to the writings of Dylan Klebold. Dare I say, we did have a Beta-Test of fascism in America, an unintended consequence of the national coronavirus response strategy.

At a fundamental level, fascists are miserable because you are outwardly happy. Their grievances often come from perception of deficit in their social lives, and they fantasize ways to remove joy and spontaneity from relationships, including hook-up culture. As an example of pattern rupture, the year-long government shutdowns of “non-essential” businesses such as bars and concert venues in many states may permanently alter what it means “to go out” for an evening. While social activities have moved from public spaces to private settings (at one service academy, daytime liberty on weekends resulted in a 15% COVID infection rate after just two months), researchers have found increased malaise among young adults. This may be confounded with other factors like lack of hiring in well-paying jobs.

Halting immigration from Africa, the Middle East, and Asia has featured in multiple extremist manifestos. The national border is sealed with policies reminiscent of the isolationist 1930s. Based on the adjusted travel patterns of my peer group, I would surmise that most international travelers and immigrants today are coming to the US from Europe, rather than the Global South.

Record Gun Sales- Gun ownership has increased, especially among women and racial minorities Some Leftist groups have embraced gun ownership, often as a response to the outwardly firearm-toting Far Right groups. It is impossible to stereotype who might be armed today. Notably, the new generation of firearm owners, predominantly urban or suburban dwellers, have purchased firearms for reasons other than hunting. Marksmanship, tactical training and self-defense have grown in prominence: this disassembled militia appears in manifesto writings.

Inequitable Health Outcomes- Higher COVID death rates among disfavored groups represents a racially and socioeconomically unequal loss of life. COVID infection crossed all walks of life, as seen in how the virus first spread through the global jet-set. But those with less reserves, in wealth or health, were more likely to perish.  Social Darwinist policies are frequently invoked in manifestos.  

Discussing birth rates during a prolonged crisis is a difficult subject, because of conflicting mainstream philosophies. On one hand, it is seen as the “responsible choice” to delay childbearing until one’s socioeconomic situation improves. In the other stream of thought, childbearing is life’s most essential activity, and minimal constraints should apply: in the religious context, this would include marriage between biological parents. As many of my friends are in this stage of life, I am interested to see how countermeasures applied in the Spring of 2020, such as no-visitation policies in maternity wards, affected the rate of home births; or if it caused couples to be discouraged, resulting in a birth rate drop this past Winter. What the evidence shows is that couples have postponed childrearing, except for the wealthiest young adults (see Refinery29, Insider). Survival of the fittest, much?

Reversion to traditional gender roles: Celebration of the family puts a softer edge on the general bluntness of fascist policies. Women, though, tend to bear the strain in domestic workload and missed career opportunities. As modern resources that enabled the two-income household became unavailable; be it daycare centers, grandparents, foreign au-pairs, and, yes, public schools; one parent had to step back from full-time work. In the past, it was assumed that a woman would take up domestic responsibilities; today, income, stability, and now, essentialness, are hashed out between the couple. Egalitarianism is to let the math speak for itself, and most often, Dad keeps pursuing his career.

Hopefully, the experience of the past year and a half has debunked any thoughts that fascism is a viable solution to the political difficulties in the United States. High-priority issues that have come to the fore-front in national discussion are learning and skills loss, alleviation of childhood poverty, and newfound respect for individual freedom.  There appears to be bipartisan agreement in saying “never again”, with regard to the challenges people and the nation have endured.

The Educated Working Class

Despite the vocal assertions of mainstream media, student loan debt is not killing millennials as a whole- 2/3 do not have loans as they have paid them off, acquired scholarships or grants (such as the GI Bill for veterans), or did not attend college. Furthermore, the average balance for those with outstanding loans is a reasonable $8000. (The conservative National Review provided these stats). But there are 6% with over $100,000 in loans, and likely a larger group with high five-figure debt: we could say a solid demographic quintile have large outstanding student loans.

Among this group, many face growing balances as a result of low monthly payments and a high interest rate. Many students were taken in for surprise: there is no counseling requirement for undergrad loans. This was the cost of following your dreams into struggling fields like journalism. Existentially, it calls into question the role of higher education: to pursue a passion, or seek return on investment? Historically, attending college was a ROI proposition, with exceptions for the wealthy elite and certain upwardly-striving debutantes. Then if everyone sought the ROI method, society would suffer as a whole. Compensation for teachers, social workers and public advocates did not rise to reflect the cost of increased professionalization in these fields. Low compensation is endemic to career fields with origins in “women’s work” and advocacy.

While the college graduate still out earns the non-college grad, the wealth gap has closed. At age 35, the skilled tradesman has a higher net worth than the loan-taking college graduate
An economic realignment of the tech and COVID eras has occurred. White collar unionization at workplaces such as Google is emerging. This reflects the precarious nature of employment: contract workers without a sufficient war chest  (cash reserve) to mitigate the risks of self employment or small business entrepreneurship.
A decline in entry-level positions makes it more difficult for new graduates to deploy learned skills in a meaningful way. Such self-employment is a principal part of the skilled trades. In the trades, the “get a good job” mantra could bring a middle class income, but creating your own job was the ultimate goal. White-collar professionals must now reckon with the change.

Politically, what can be done? Portable health insurance ( through the Affordable Care Act) is a key enabler. Universal Basic Income would assist in lieu of unemployment benefits
I advocate for student debt relief through interest rate reduction, rather than cancellation of principal. This is the fairest approach considering that a majority of students do make compromises to manage the cost of education, such as attending community college as a commuter student, or pursuing part-time studying while working. 

The college grad is in a different cultural milieu than the traditional working class, but its economic standing is not too far. It is a force to reckon with, electing progressive candidates. The hippie generation recovered its economic standing during the 1980s-2000 bull market; some college educated millennials from the comfortable middle class may not.

There exists dichotomies in political theory: working class vs rich, highly educated vs not; as well as labor vs management.
Senator Marco Rubio, a Republican, has called for a multiethnic working class party. Most likely speaking of  Economically secure part of the working class, holding rare or marketable skills, who is in control of their work life.

Coronavirus: A Public Act of Faith

Reason and Logic are two tools of a mature society. Sometimes, one exceeds the other in a given moment of time. Due to COVID-19’s diminutive size, use of fabric to prevent transmission was once considered to be “catching a fly with a barbed-wire fence”. This logic is often used by anti-mask individuals. Even if this analogy remains true, epidemiological evidence has shown that wearing a face covering greatly reduces the rate of transmission. The two people I know who recovered from COVID-19 had contracted the virus at Texas bars. These venues are characterized by casual contact, loosened inhibitions, and no face masks. On the larger scale, one could compare Black Lives Matter protests against a biker rally in Sturgis, South Dakota. Both types of events consisted of large, working-class crowds who had a significant risk of workplace exposure to the virus. Despite public concerns, the former events did not create a statistical spike in COVID-19 cases- mask-wearing was prevalent. The latter became a super-spreading event- mask-wearing was rare.  It is a reasonable assumption that mask-wearing helps prevent the transmission of coronavirus.

Faith in God, humanity, and so forth, has given way to great cynicism. In the late Middle Ages, farmers in Europe rotated their crops and used fertilizer for at least three centuries before a scientific explanation of soil nutrition was given. Good results meant that the practice spread beyond a renegade farmer’s field. And as those farmers rotated their crops, so let us have faith in masking up.