Systems Engineering by Bus

You may remember the park-and-ride blog post I wrote several years ago. I have to admit, I like to draft bus maps and schedules, and have done so well before pursing my master’s degree in systems engineering. In my coursework, I got credit for doing what I love: making bus schedules. In the era of work-from-home, it seems a bit untimely to be thinking about the topic. But COVID-19 had pummeled transit agencies and private bus companies to the ground, so the only trendline is upward. Tools used: -Google Maps, whose driving times between destinations are overly optimistic -Local transit schedules for major cities, which have included traffic conditions that vary on time-of-day -Driving the route itself. - Transit maps from the early 1970s, as these maps show the dense neighborhoods where transit was economically viable prior to federal subsidies. -Excel Spreadsheets, Got to have them. Throw in real-world constraints: -People don’t like to sit on buses that take them on a circuitous ride. Put straight lines on the map, preferably on freeways with exclusive transit lanes, and try to get people to work in 30 minutes or less. -Choice riders (aka, the middle class) will not tolerate unreliable or infrequent service. Buffer time must be included to improve schedule adherence. -The most efficient use of buses is to serve a prosperous central business district with high parking costs. Focus on routes to big cities. -Subsidy of commuter passes, as required for employers in Los Angeles and Washington, DC; are effective at increasing ridership. Focus on routes to big, environmentally progressive cities. - Equipment Cost of Ownership, Fuel, Union-Level Wages. Cost Per Operating Hour, or about $110 per hour for private operators, is a good metric. Consult the experts: -Randall O’Toole of the libertarian Cato Institute had put public transit in his crosshairs. But to know his enemy, he did extensive research on alternatives, such as Uber and immigrant-run jitney services in New York. -Studies performed by the US Department of Transportation, and states such as New Jersey and Virginia, during the transition to industry deregulation in the 1980s. Titles include “Private Sector Options for Commuter Transportation, 1984” and “Financing Public Transportation in Virginia, 1979”. Put it all together, and you get short and sweet routes through dense, but low-traffic neighborhoods. A real-world example of this model is the eponymous Short Line in New York; or DeCamp in New Jersey. Both pea-shoot passengers through the Hudson River’s Lincoln Tunnel, use exclusive transit lanes, and quickly arrive in walkable suburban neighborhoods.

PE Exam: Game Day

 

Most successful exam takers recommend doing nothing but relaxing the day before taking the 8-hour Professional Engineering exam. I ignored their advice. I had finished a practice exam the previous Saturday, but it was only on the day before test-day that I had time to rework missed problems.

Even on test day, between breakfast at the Holiday Inn Express and the test center opening, I ran through my flashcards with important formulae- rules of thumb- not included in the test handbook.  

I prepared snacks and lunch in portioned bags, placing them in my test candidate’s locker. Save brainpower for the test, instead of thinking about what to eat. In previous times, PE exam candidates, like lawyers aiming for the State Bar, would convene at certain convention-like centers around the state on a given day. Now, nearly all tests are offered at Pearson’s Professional Testing Centers, which serve members of various trades and professions, including nurses, EMTs, and dentists.

At least at the center I tested at, order of seating is given on a first-come, first-serve basis, so anxious individuals with a 2-hour exam could be seated ahead of full-day examinees. But there was a silver lining in the wait, as I decided to take my morning break early. If was fortuitous that I could plug-and-chug until lunchtime.

It had been several years since I sat for a major exam, so, like plunging into the cold water of the hotel pool, I remembered to mind my breathing and heart rate (My grad school program in Systems Engineering had no timed tests, just projects and reports).

Unlike most every other academic exam, the NCEES’ PE exam is a test that is about endurance, strategy, and time management. It is a test where perfection is erroneous, and where you are expected to skip questions to better manage time- an average of 6 minutes per question. Indeed, PhD’s are often permitted to skip this exam on the road to state licensure- their work is quite different from the constraints faced by ordinary practitioners of the engineering profession.

 I took the Mechanical- HVAC version, which errs towards the blue-collar side of the PE exams that NCEES offers. In this test, the writers want to ensure that someone long out of college, but dedicated to the industry, can pass the exam. I reviewed refrigeration questions from the US Coast Guard’s Marine Engineering test series, which is heavily focused on practical applications; several questions were direct hits.  

Each half of the test is about the same length in questions. But there is no cutoff clock for the first half, so you could pace 4 hours and 4 hours, or 3 hours and 5 hours between the halves. To reduce stress, I was not going to allot extra time to the first half of the exam, since the second half is traditionally the harder- and time-consuming half.

In the first half, I recall that I spent too much time on one question, then had to shoot-from-the hip on one I could have calculated. It resembled a practice problem, so I chose the answer from memory. It turned out the second half of the exam was the easier one, this cycle. (Four versions of the test are issued each year, and April 1 was the first day of a new test version). I definitely was dragging by question 75, out of 80, yet I had time to rework uncertain problems, and leave the test center 20 minutes ahead of time.

At the end of the exam, I had a high level of confidence, which waned with second-guessing myself the next day. A missed fundamental concept, such as confusing latent heat with sensible heat, could cost 7 questions, and the test-writers know which wrong answers to give as choices. One missed fundamental leaves little room for other errors, for the average-performing test taker. And of the fill-in-the-blank questions, what was the leeway given for rounding errors? The never specified the number of decimal points to give.

 With the computer-based test, I completed the exam on Friday, April 1, and received results on the following Wednesday. I couldn’t bear to see what I might see, but I saw the green bar of success! As I have completed all of the other state prerequisites for licensure (education, references, and an ethics exam), I am just waiting on the official letter to come from Richmond, VA.

As I sat on the tailgate of my car, having completed the test, I wondered at the feeling of having completed “the last test of your life”. For many of my undergraduate classmates at the US Merchant Marine Academy, comprehensive tests for the US Coast Guard Merchant Mariner License were the end of their academic careers. We had a profession for life, if sailing as a mariner is what we wanted.

Are Seagoing Leaders created based on Early Opportunities?

 

Note: Recent graduates have not yet achieved required sea time for capstone licensure. Approximately 135 engineering graduates per year.

Contingency Periods	Peak Year
1959-1975, Vietnam	1969
1990-1994, Gulf I	1991
2001-2010, GWOT	2003
2011- Present, OEF

The shipping industry, in the US and abroad, is known for its cyclical nature. Beyond the massive profits and losses in the commercial sector, and the increased or decreased spending in the defense sector, are professional maritime officers who crew the ships. Their job security and opportunity for advancement from third mate or third engineer to second, first, and Chief Engineer or Master, depends on supply of jobs and the employment demands of incumbent mariners.

Based on information sourced from the US Merchant Marine Academy’s Alumni foundation, it is clear that early career opportunity determines upward mobility within the maritime professions. In the first five years after commencement, graduates must accept employment as a merchant officer at sea, or in the armed forces. Depending on employment conditions and personal motivation, new merchant officers may receive negative reinforcement through stagnation in their roles, or positive reinforcement in advancement and growth.

In contrast to the armed forces, in which a rigid pyramid command structure forces many junior and mid-level officers into civilian employment, the shipboard hierarchy is linear, with one or two merchant officers at each rank. In theory, there is a clear path for advancement. Affecting this is greater churn among third mates and third engineers, who in the US are fairly likely to find employment as professionals ashore, in the maritime industry or not. One US government transportation agency is notorious for hiring freshly-graduated officers instead of investing in refresher training for its experienced mariners.

Opportunities are created when shipping fleets expand, through new construction, activation for contingency, or transfer from Navy to civilian crewing; as well as when experienced mariners come home. Weakened pension benefits, both in government and private employment, has created more “silver mariners” sailing in their 50’s and 60’s. (Silver Mariner refers to 25 years of working at sea, the traditional retirement age of American merchant officers). Lifetime alimony rules of the ‘Me Generation’ era, and personal debt has created “golden handcuffs” among other mariners, who cannot afford to leave seagoing employment.

Why don’t sidelined young officers return to sea when employment conditions improve? It is in the first five years after college graduation that career-adjusting lifestyle choices, such as marriage and children, are typically established. While it is common for single graduates, in their 20’s and 30’s, to return to sea after several years working ashore, this is not the case for those graduates who have established traditional, community-oriented families. In contrast, a graduate who has accomplished career advancement at sea, and who intends to specialize in seagoing work, would (hopefully) partner with a spouse who understands the mission-oriented lifestyle.

 

Other Major Events

1970, Nixon Merchant Shipbuilding Program

1981, End of Operational Subsidies

1984, ABET Accreditation- engineering design courses introduced (KP)

1993, Al Gore Report on Government Waste (KP)

1996, MSP Subsidies & Preposition Fleets Established

2010-2014, Offshore Drilling Surge

2014-2015, Military Sealift Command Offers Jobs to Over 100 New Graduates (KP)

2017, International (STCW) Engineering Management Competency Enforced

2020-2021, COVID Pandemic

KP = Internal milestone for US Merchant Marine Academy at Kings Point

 

Approved to Test

 "Who knows when thou mayest be tested? So live that thou bearest the strain!"

From "The Laws of the Navy", by Rear Admiral Hopwood

I've been through the routine of large exams: US Coast Guard Marine Engineer Licensing, twice, National Registry for Emergency Medical Technicians, and the NCEES' own Fundamentals of Engineering. Now, it's time for the Professional Engineering exam. 

In contrast to school exams, predictably scheduled,  professional exams occur based on the ebbs and flows of work experience, completion of prerequisites such as career training, and by the individual's own volition. So there is a general sense of when things will come together, but the "statutory" readiness occurs when it does. As for the individual readiness of studying, it's good to be prepared ahead of time, but to prevent knowledge attrition, the six-month period before the exam is critical. 

Which brings me to the point of scheduling the exam. Exams for certain desirable positions, such as high-end firefighting and ship's harbor pilots, only test twice a decade. More commonly, they might be twice-annually, as the Professional Engineering exams used to be. So you would typically schedule for the next exam available. And when there is flexible, daily test availability? Just schedule it and hold yourself to that date.

The Underrated Profession

 The collapse of a bridge in Washington, DC and the a condominium in Surfside, Florida offered me a new perspective in the importance of the engineering profession. As I begin to prepare for state licensure, I could not help but think about how people within the profession view this position of trust: "Always have a job"; "The headhunters will find you"; "The paper looks good on the wall". Now, engineering for some time has been regarded as the most "9-to-5" learned profession, not the type to throw lavish parties for clients, or work overtime. A select few study research and development from the laboratories of universities, and put it into their practice; continuous professional development is often overlooked. Most, though, prefer work-life balance.

Nor does industry wish for engineering to be a cohesive, comprehensive profession. Architectural and engineering review requirements are being waived on larger and larger building projects, and licensure is generally not required when working on industrial design projects. Builders and manufacturers, in theory, then take on extra responsibility and liability to increase their profit a tiny bit. Thus, everyone is an "engineer" until nobody knows who an engineer is. In contrast, the medical profession has taught the public how to differentiate between a "Medical Doctor" and a "Doctor of Nursing". As a major infrastructure renewal bill nears approval in Congress, it's time for engineers to remember what the profession is about: to ensure public safety in the built environment.