Spirit Grounded: The Balancing Act in a Fuel-Dependent Industry

As a champion of privately owned transportation systems, from rideshare and commuter vanpools to Brightline trains and the airline industry, the loss of Spirit Airlines brings me a tinge of sadness. I never flew the yellow jets. The consensus I’ve heard is that Spirit had great staff on the airplane, but poor business strategy and non-existent operational redundancy kept away those who could afford better. Interest rates are a killer. Two years ago, I was looking at making a van purchase. It would have been the same price to purchase a ten-year-old vehicle at a higher interest rate, as a new vehicle would have cost at a lower interest rate. Reviewing the history of the 34-year-old airline, Spirit sought to standardize its fleet, in the model of other low-cost carriers. Unfortunately, engine recall issues grounded a significant portion of the airline’s fleet, and left the airline paying leases and mortgages for aircraft that couldn’t fly for revenue hours. Unhedged fuel prices finished off the airline. At the beginning of the recent conflict with Iran, I personally set aside a tankful of gasoline in case of fuel shortages or price spikes. That is a two-week supply for me. Many airlines, and other fuel-dependent transportation companies, hedge fuel prices to prevent pricing shocks. Other airlines, like Spirit, took the gamble that they can pass on price increases to the customer. Which leads to the K-shaped economic recovery: United Airlines noted that the average airline passenger today is demanding a premium experience, and is willing to pay the cost. Spirit provided mobility for young adults and the working class. Prior to the Pandemic, a more robust intercity bus network served as a Plan B, as did one-way car rentals. Now that one-way car rentals are difficult to obtain, and bus routes have been slashed to one trip per day on many key routes, the most reliable backup plan was to book a ticket on a “legacy” air carrier instead. Despite the meddling of an anti-trust judge in 2024, who blocked a merger between Spirit and Jet Blue, no Federal rescue plan was forthcoming. In the present case, it required cooperation with private bond issuers. The idea of a Trump Shuttle 2.0 was fleeting indeed. I turn to the New Jersey model of what could have been done to rescue Spirit Airlines. In that case, the state’s transportation department leased motorcoaches to established bus operators, at the rate of one dollar per year, on the condition that they run commuter service at regulated rates. Free of equipment amortization and interest costs, transportation companies suddenly have a lot more economic headroom to operate. However, since other low-cost carriers sought the same aid proffered to Spirit, it was too late to do anything quick enough to save the airline. (Did I eulogize Skybus back in ’08? I probably did).

Naval Base Shuttle is no Squeaky Wheel

I’ve used up several blog posts to discuss buses, bus networks, bus system funding; and thankfully, this effort has paid off at Naval Station Norfolk. The crux of the transportation issue was severe gate traffic, as 50,000 daily commuters in mostly single-occupancy vehicles needed to pass through a limited number of Entry Control Points. In addition, 12,000 junior enlisted sailors live onboard ship or in barracks onboard the Naval Station. The local transit provider, Hampton Roads Transit, had until 2017 served the Naval Base at the end of several regular routes. Because gate traffic, and gate closures, were so unpredictable, Hampton Roads Transit ended on-base service as part of a “Service Reliability Plan”. Some rush-hour commuter routes continued until COVID-era restrictions in 2020. Without reliable transit service, the junior enlisted sailor heads to a car dealership on Little Creek Road to sign an expensive lease, or make a purchase at a high interest rate. While there was no base-wide transit coordination, some ships and shore commands did take their own initiative to furnish vans for the convenience of their sailors. These were often funded by profits from onboard ship’s stores. I performed research into furnishing similar service to the predominately-civilian Military Sealift Command. It all came down to funding: due to “prevailing maritime practice”, beer, cigars and other “vice” items could only be sold at a 10% markup; in contrast to the market price allowed for warships. Another option was the commuter benefit program, but that would require close cooperation of shipboard supervisors, who are preoccupied with other ship’s business. Nevertheless, I had a plan on paper. While on-base transit service is usually paid for from facility operating funds, Naval Station Norfolk restored on-base shuttle service with a three-year grant from the Commonwealth of Virginia’s Department of Rail and Passenger Transportation. With 50,000 commuters, the lack of on-base transit was of statewide significance. Ironically, the service was contracted to James River Transportation, the same firm I had identified in my own transit plans. Hopefully, a permanent funding mechanism will be identified before the grant money ceases. Our sailors deserve it.

Systems Engineering by Bus

You may remember the park-and-ride blog post I wrote several years ago. I have to admit, I like to draft bus maps and schedules, and have done so well before pursing my master’s degree in systems engineering. In my coursework, I got credit for doing what I love: making bus schedules. In the era of work-from-home, it seems a bit untimely to be thinking about the topic. But COVID-19 had pummeled transit agencies and private bus companies to the ground, so the only trendline is upward. Tools used: -Google Maps, whose driving times between destinations are overly optimistic -Local transit schedules for major cities, which have included traffic conditions that vary on time-of-day -Driving the route itself. - Transit maps from the early 1970s, as these maps show the dense neighborhoods where transit was economically viable prior to federal subsidies. -Excel Spreadsheets, Got to have them. Throw in real-world constraints: -People don’t like to sit on buses that take them on a circuitous ride. Put straight lines on the map, preferably on freeways with exclusive transit lanes, and try to get people to work in 30 minutes or less. -Choice riders (aka, the middle class) will not tolerate unreliable or infrequent service. Buffer time must be included to improve schedule adherence. -The most efficient use of buses is to serve a prosperous central business district with high parking costs. Focus on routes to big cities. -Subsidy of commuter passes, as required for employers in Los Angeles and Washington, DC; are effective at increasing ridership. Focus on routes to big, environmentally progressive cities. - Equipment Cost of Ownership, Fuel, Union-Level Wages. Cost Per Operating Hour, or about $110 per hour for private operators, is a good metric. Consult the experts: -Randall O’Toole of the libertarian Cato Institute had put public transit in his crosshairs. But to know his enemy, he did extensive research on alternatives, such as Uber and immigrant-run jitney services in New York. -Studies performed by the US Department of Transportation, and states such as New Jersey and Virginia, during the transition to industry deregulation in the 1980s. Titles include “Private Sector Options for Commuter Transportation, 1984” and “Financing Public Transportation in Virginia, 1979”. Put it all together, and you get short and sweet routes through dense, but low-traffic neighborhoods. A real-world example of this model is the eponymous Short Line in New York; or DeCamp in New Jersey. Both pea-shoot passengers through the Hudson River’s Lincoln Tunnel, use exclusive transit lanes, and quickly arrive in walkable suburban neighborhoods.

Pentagon Transit Center, 5:27pm

A sunset view of the Potomac
A guy blocking the path of a commuter bus in a vain attempt to gain admission, as in Tienanmen Square.
The neat lines of passengers on some routes, and the disorderly blobs of others.
The procession of buses of all different county flags and colors.

But, no unauthorized photography on Pentagon grounds, so words will do.

To Make a BID

That's Business Improvement District.
Some business neighbors desire to create a business district in the area between the Golden Triangle (which includes lobbyist row and other high-profile names such as the Mayflower Hotel and the Spitzer family commerical real estate across the street, the Dupont BID and the Georgetown BID. To quote them, We look impoverished compared to our neighbors. Keeping up with whatever family the saying mentions. And guess what. I would be part of it. For free, because I don't live on a commercial property (only the most dedicated employees of a company do!) So according to their plans. an alternative to a mandatory tax increase that would last five years or more is a business association. When I consider that DC's tony hotels (and their decently affluent guests) are mostly in this district- and I notice that there isn't much retail on the streets- I suppose all the money flows across the creek to...Georgetown, and the Golden Triangle. Exactly.

Swamp and Bridge- Wilson Bridge Bike Lanes

After coming back from the pool yesterday, I loaded my bike onto an express bus down to the Wilson Bridge, Maryland side. It was on the news that the new bike lanes were open on the new 12 lane span. So I get off at "Wilson Bridge" stop, wiht the bike, and head parallel to the Beltway by going down the walkway at Oxon Hill Farm- the one that leads to the visitor center and barns- I ask the rangers where to find the path. They say around the fence- I try the first roa. It lead about 300 feet to a shed. I then go down the paved road that went to the water. An idyllic marshland southern farm. The road turned to dirt, and to rut marks. It ended at a pile of Jersey barriers. Promising, but no lead after a minute in a brush. I then tried down another clearing. A wobble in the mud made both my shoes get wet. An organized grove of trees grown wild. A line of vines. Sight of the bridge- but there was a fence- and it wasn't the correct freeway. Sweating and overwhelmed with mosquitoes from the swamp, I pushed back after seeing a few decayed animals-large ones, and got back to the road- a great relief for a person who thought he'd need the state trooper to pick him up (the cell phone made me feel secure). So I get to the trail, which was the one that the rangers were probably talking about. I head up a while, and pull over to a subdivision at the first chance. Going up the road with the most traffic, I find a folded dollar, and came out where I had gotten off the bus. determined, and only having lost an hour, head back to the bridge. from an outcrop I tried to spot the bike trail. Two abutments far off was what I identified as the access point. I coast down the road in National Harbor, and end up on the shoulder of the bridge- I remembered, 3 12' lanes and a wide shoulder. I maneuver across an exit ramp and onto the safe side of the guardrail. When I reached the trail overpass, I pulled my bike 6 feet up, and myself as well. That is when I hurt my thumb. But I came out unharmed. I scouted on the other side of the overpass, and found out that the trail came from the National Harbor riverline area. I reached the foundation of the bridge, and there was an inspirational sign about this tristate project (MD_DC- over water_VA) I pulled out my camera for a shot- no memory card. But At least I found how to get there! It was a great view, great experience as I made my way to Washington St (VA 400), the end of the trail. A glass sound barrier made the final half mile very quaint as I passed above the cemetery. And I made it. My week's journey. I'm going to take Little Brother sometime- but I'll spare him from the swamp part of the trip.

H St. NE

Get this. Private industry has decided to run an express bus service along an existing transit corridor (street cars and all to be started soon), and right on top of an existing line. There really shouldn't be such an uproar. I mean, Alexandria did it. No, the real fear is that the general public and not the bar crowd will start taking advantage of free rides, making the X2 bus the elite mode of transport at $1.25.
I just don't get it.

Critanydisc?

Only through fsx (fantasy stock exchange) did I realize that oil prices are falling at a clippy pace.

More UNO (the card game:0) today- survived two elimination rounds as of now. It's the strategy that matters; Maybe I'll win tomorrow. I mean, if I'm no good at online wrestling, I have to be crafty at some little game- yes, I also do well in online poker.

The Doctor was at 2:00. Not more needs to be said here. I'm fine; there'll be more posts.

A 37- Limited ride was awesome as I headed up to AU for a violin lesson. Yes, silently roaring up the right lane of Mass. Avenue. As fast as self-driving.

Why am I writing in monotony?

Week 3- Really?

Monday, Week 3 of "work".
Weekday One of the new 30-series metrobus schedule.
It looked pretty good heading uphill to Tenleytown. Buses popping up at regular intervals, and the 37! Wow! Limited service downtown for the taking. The naturals of bus bunching and the punctuality of the new routes made the scheduling work, contrary to what I thought would happen, on account of treating the 31 as a separate line from the 32 and 36. Home, and Little Brother did his best- 14 years on play mode on Locomotion. Pool late in the evening after the storms, and home again, contemplating on the new square-shaped gallon milk jugs that Sam's Club now makes.
We're finalizing Jangoomag July. Look online soon!

End of a Golden Era

Today sadly ends a golden era for private enterprise in cities. Eastern Travel and Tours is enjoying its last day at the peak of a golden wave. Ever since 1998, a bubble was forming. In recent years, some companies have been, again, riding the wave of prosperity, but it is Eastern that had the upper hand. What am I referring to?
The so-called Chinatown buses. Fung Wah started in 1998, catering to the Chinese community, shuttling passengers for $10 between New York and Boston. Other companies soon followed for the same intention, within 5 years forming a network on the East Coast. Eastern took the lead in catering to the "wider population". Low Fares, Friendly People, and by far, Quicker Service and Better Schedules characterize Eastern, as well as others, against the government-subsidized Greyhound.
The bubble was bound to burst. New start-ups such as Tony Coach (blast to the past- has priorities mixed up- chooses quantity over quality) and the tasteless DC2NY, in the past year, proved that the clientèle was a bottomless well. Well, Greyhound wanted to be the bully that scattered the people. Their new service, Boltbus, will be a Trojan Horse. The system, starting tomorrow, will run just like a striving company, running buses from the street corner. But it's Greyhound. The government is sponsoring this non-capitalist act that is on the verge of offending Anti-Trust laws meant to protect the smaller providers. If they were only entering the market, it would not sting. However, they are using their bottomless cesspool of cash to push private enterprise into bankrupcy, or shutting down. Offering tickets that start at $1, range up through the $7 and $10 range and practically capping at $15, someone without a strong conscience will be lured by the outer beauty of the price deal.
Who knows what will happen tomorrow with my friends at Eastern? What do they have up their sleeve? They must not fail, and most likely will not. Due to the drain of up to 400 passengers each way per day, if all comes to worst, several companies will shut down, (Tony and DC2NY top my list right now) and Eastern, the most "American Apple Pie" of the companies will have to make noticeable cuts to service. The older underdogs, such as New Century, MVP/Apex Bus and Today's Bus, will tweak schedules and tactics to recenter on the Chinese community. Maybe there is some law that Greyhound is violating in creating BoltBus. We can hope.
At least Eastern provides a quicker trip!
>Boltbus will then take their tornado to the NY-Boston route. They might have more trouble there, due to Fung Wah as well as Lucky Star each providing near-hourly service between the two towns. Later on that.

Shopping Rush

Today I went to Inkstop. I got up at 7am to do so as to get massively discounted technology, but there was a little problem. The ad said the store opened at 8am, when it really opens at 9. So I was stranded for an hour, walking around "Little West Virginia", as the neighborhood is sometimes called, and playing with my cellphone waiting. At 9 I was like a child in a candy shop, the discounted technology on one neat shelf. I got memory cards, reams of paper, a labelmaker, for $27. or so. Anyway, according to my original plan, I was supposed to take the D5 shortcut bus directly home, but that was a rush hour only service and I was stuck taking a transfer trip. At least the D6 was a new bus, which took off some of the pain. Anyway, Inkstop, great values.

Mid-Week Blogging

I would not have usually been blogging now other than by public request. I suppose it is assumed that one should blog everyday like one would journal or diary everyday. I think I should attempt to try to do a blog every day.

But today I got a little word of advice: I did run two blocks after a bus yesterday. I did make it, but it was not worth it. I then was panting all the way to school and until the end of first period. There was also a little bit of coughing involved as well, and I was afraid that I had caught a cold, but I didn't. Moral of story: try to resist the temptation of chasing buses.

Otherwise I guess my mid-weeks are routine. There is a larger thing I want to say that will have to wait a little. Hopefully I can post my big idea tonight, and if not, soon. You see, I like, and I must, if I want to be happy the next day, get to bed by 10:30pm. By that time I always have my schoolwork done, and sometimes a little time to spare. But otherwise, I just hope the "workweek" goes by fast. PS I do floss every night :)

Circulation Dead

If you ever happen to be in DC never trust the tourist- oriented red Circulator buses. It's a mediocre, slow ride if you take it, although you would fare better in your own automobile, as long as you know the roads, or the Metro (DC has this thing of distinction of calling the subway by this name of higher elegance.) Hint. Never wait more than ten minutes for that bus that couldn't. I've had bad experiences where the bus did not come even after 45 minutes (It's supposed to come every 5-10 minutes) Just today I sat down at the computer after deciding to do the 20 block / 2 mile walk from Chinatown to my residence. And not a single bus was in sight!


Note: This refers to the K street/ Mass ave line. The 7/9 street line fares better with dedicated bus lanes, and the Independence/Consitution line runs fine when it does in the Summer. Visit dccirculator.com for information on this bus, and note that if you want to complain this is not part of the Metrobus system.