Spirit Grounded: The Balancing Act in a Fuel-Dependent Industry

As a champion of privately owned transportation systems, from rideshare and commuter vanpools to Brightline trains and the airline industry, the loss of Spirit Airlines brings me a tinge of sadness. I never flew the yellow jets. The consensus I’ve heard is that Spirit had great staff on the airplane, but poor business strategy and non-existent operational redundancy kept away those who could afford better. Interest rates are a killer. Two years ago, I was looking at making a van purchase. It would have been the same price to purchase a ten-year-old vehicle at a higher interest rate, as a new vehicle would have cost at a lower interest rate. Reviewing the history of the 34-year-old airline, Spirit sought to standardize its fleet, in the model of other low-cost carriers. Unfortunately, engine recall issues grounded a significant portion of the airline’s fleet, and left the airline paying leases and mortgages for aircraft that couldn’t fly for revenue hours. Unhedged fuel prices finished off the airline. At the beginning of the recent conflict with Iran, I personally set aside a tankful of gasoline in case of fuel shortages or price spikes. That is a two-week supply for me. Many airlines, and other fuel-dependent transportation companies, hedge fuel prices to prevent pricing shocks. Other airlines, like Spirit, took the gamble that they can pass on price increases to the customer. Which leads to the K-shaped economic recovery: United Airlines noted that the average airline passenger today is demanding a premium experience, and is willing to pay the cost. Spirit provided mobility for young adults and the working class. Prior to the Pandemic, a more robust intercity bus network served as a Plan B, as did one-way car rentals. Now that one-way car rentals are difficult to obtain, and bus routes have been slashed to one trip per day on many key routes, the most reliable backup plan was to book a ticket on a “legacy” air carrier instead. Despite the meddling of an anti-trust judge in 2024, who blocked a merger between Spirit and Jet Blue, no Federal rescue plan was forthcoming. In the present case, it required cooperation with private bond issuers. The idea of a Trump Shuttle 2.0 was fleeting indeed. I turn to the New Jersey model of what could have been done to rescue Spirit Airlines. In that case, the state’s transportation department leased motorcoaches to established bus operators, at the rate of one dollar per year, on the condition that they run commuter service at regulated rates. Free of equipment amortization and interest costs, transportation companies suddenly have a lot more economic headroom to operate. However, since other low-cost carriers sought the same aid proffered to Spirit, it was too late to do anything quick enough to save the airline. (Did I eulogize Skybus back in ’08? I probably did).

Boeing's Loveable 757

It’s the early 1980s. While the duopoly against Airbus was not yet established, Boeing had strong competition in the commercial jet aircraft sector from McDonnell- Douglas, and for a while, Lockheed’s L-1011 Tristar. Innovation was key to staying ahead of the competition; and the key advantage with Boeing’s 757, the direct successor to the 727, was dropping the engine count from three to two. Production stopped in 2004, but the 757’s new purchase market had already declined to niche markets after September 2001, which pushed multiple US air carriers into bankruptcy. The 757 was known as the “racecar” of the skies, as it was overpowered due to the lack of a suitable sized engine on the 1980’s market. When oil prices steadily increased in the 2002-2008 period, airline executives could not justify purchasing more high-performance, overpowered, fuel-guzzling aircraft that pilots loved to fly. Some traits: It was the largest aircraft that can service Washington Reagan and New York Laguardia airports, both in the top-25 busiest airports in the US. Other aircraft of similar size require more runway length for takeoff than these airports have. The aircraft had performance for high-altitude takeoff in South America and Central Asia. Higher cruising altitude over 40,000 feet, which was only surpassed by the supersonic Concorde. This allowed for avoiding all types of weather turbulence. Year-round non-stop flights between the Eastern US and Western Europe, with 160-180 seats serving “long, thin routes”. I flew one from New York to Edinburgh, Scotland in 2007; and Iceland Air makes good use of the aircraft model today, Transcontinental flights to the West Coast, allowing improved legroom options over the 737. For example, United regularly used the aircraft on its Washington, DC to San Francisco route. Oh, and the “turn left for first class” routine, as the forward boarding door was located some distance aft of the cockpit. Around 2017, Boeing appeared ready to proceed with designing a new 757, under Project Yellowstone, sometimes dubbed the “797” or the “New Mid Market Aircraft”. The airline, however, diverted its efforts to fixing production of the revolutionary, and larger, 787 aircraft, which itself was a fresh slate 15 years in the making; and releasing the 737 Max, the fourth iteration and transcontinental version of what was once a regional jet. I’ve made big business predictions before on the blog, one of which was a major corporation moving into vacant office space immediately south of the Pentagon. Both Amazon and Boeing did so. This one might have been a napkin sketch rather than a blog post, but I felt that Norfolk International Airport was ready for a regional airline hub. Breeze Airways entered the picture seven years after Vision Airlines failed in their attempt from nearby Newport News. What if Boeing shrank the 787, a two-engine aircraft, to fit the aging 757’s market, using a common type rating for both the flagship and miniature models? With competition from Airbus in this size range, only a quarter of orders for the 787 have been for the 787-800 variety, with 230 seats. Boeing still needs to work through its backlog of orders for this jet. But shrinking the plane will cover the mid-market gap that the 737 Max can’t fill.

Good Crews and Safe Skies

Large passenger engulfed in flames at Haneida Airport in Tokyo! Everyone survived! I call it a pleasant miracle; others prefer to give credit to the flight crew and passengers. Quick evacuation of the aircraft was indeed necessary; the aircraft's interior was fire retardent but not fireproof. Passengers followed directions, and correctly left their belongings onboard. What seems like an anomaly of good disciple to Americans is the expected response by the United States' Federal Aviation Administration. Evacuate a full aircraft in 90 seconds. Are we up to the task? The common Boeing 737 was first evaluated in the 1960's. Since then, passengers have become bigger, seats narrower, and no longer trained with military discipline. But didn't the 2009 landing of Flight 1549 on New York's Hudson River prove that we Americans could do the right thing? Kind of; this plane was on a "banker's run" between New York and the finance-driven city of Charlotte, North Carolina. Before videoconferencing hit its stride in 2020, businesspeople used to take weekly plane trips to routine meetings. So you had a lot of experience fliers who were not predispositioned to rock the norms. A bit different maker than a tourist flight to Orlando. I think, overall, that Japan Airlines Flight 516 is a wake-up to pay attention to maintaining standards of passenger safety.

Breaking Troupes

This is the insanity I saw during my very first visit to California:

Berkeley Radicals

I expected to meet the illiberal Left (Stalinists) at Berkeley’s BART Train platform. Instead, I proceeded without incident to take a selfie at UC Berkeley’s Free Speech gate, wearing F-16 jet shorts draped in the American flag. I realized that Milos Y. might actually be a provocateur.

Gender as fluid as the San Francisco Bay

Even UC Berkeley didn’t have “gender neutral” bathrooms. Around the area, there were Womens’ rooms, Mens’ rooms, and unremarkably unisex water closets. Exception is the deYoung museum, which has a “gender neutral” restroom, which is basically a co-ed facility like one would find in a European youth hostel.

Environmental Fascism

Foie  Gras and fur may be out in San Fran, but plastic bags can still be procured at ten cents’ tax. Highway tolls are few and far between, even the long Oakland Bay Bridge merely levied a $7 toll, single driver, during rush hour. Many streets in central SF are set up as one-way arterials for the purpose of moving vehicular traffic. In Washington, D.C., Mayor Bowser has “de-commuterized”
several streets, with traffic-calming measure, in booming mid-city neighborhoods.

Tech Bro Colonizers

They exist, they ride exclusive commuter buses, but they blend in with the urban fabric as well as other urban professionals. Hard to get a table at a ‘hip’ restaurant, though.

Mass transit is falling apart and everyone must ride Uber

BART’s 50-year old Transbay tubes are undergoing major renovation, practically ending subway service at 8pm. But the system, and the MUNI streetcars, earn their keep during the daytime hours, with frequent and fairly comprehensive service. With just 36 stations, the SF Bay Area’s  BART falls well short of counterpart Washington DC’s 90+ station Metrorail. Put on some walking shoes.

Oakland is a war zone

The city across the bay is working to find its groove. Street life leaves much to be desired, but increase in new residents will create a demand for shops and restaurants.

Palo Alto Snobs
The students at Stanford University’s suburban-style campus were quite friendly. Education still has meaning besides a means to a financially rewarding end.

Crippling taxation
As a visitor, yes San Francisco was expensive, but less so than a Western Europe’s destination city. New Yorkers tell me that their City is a great place to visit, but that living there is expensive. I conjure the same about San Francisco. Several restaurants and shops itemize a 5% levy to cover healthcare costs. I ate in more than I usually would on travel.

Last Flight to Hong Kong

It takes 8 hours to fly from the territory of Guam to the State of Hawaii; and 13 hours to the Mainland United States. If on Guam and interested in travel, xenophobia is a disadvantage; for the experiences of Japan, Taiwan and Korea are but 4 hours away by air.


Hong Kong, which I had not visited yet, caught my fancy, being in similar proximity to Guam. Since 1997, when the British lease on Victoria Island and surrounding areas ended, the former British colony has undergone Sinification. The area would be remolded into Beijing’s image. Hong Kong’s hybrid culture palpably faded as its newfound status as a “Special Administrative Region” wore on. Reunification is scheduled for the year 2047, but many residents feel the end of special status is near. Hong Kong’s fish mongers resented overbearing law enforcement; this was prelude to a summer of discontent, spurred by an extradition agreement with Mainland China. In travelling to Hong Kong, I sought to capture a glimpse of a time past.    


The window of opportunity was quickly closing, and I was in a fortuitous position to make a trip. I had concerns: being unable to procure a transit visa through Mainland China, Hong Kong International Airport was my only way to depart Hong Kong. Through Alfred P. Chester’s A Sailor’s Odyssey and other works, I read about the many American expatriates desperate to leave war-drummed Europe in 1940 and 1941 on the few passenger liners still sailing. Failing that, they abandoned their belongings and assets, riding across the Atlantic as supercargo onboard derelict freighters. I realized it was possible for history to repeat.


Despite the widescale weekend protests, as of August 1^st, the US State Department had not issued a travel advisory on Hong Kong. I did make sure to book a hotel away from Victoria Square, epicenter of the protest activity, namely at Harbourview near Hong Kong station. I purchased airline tickets and researched Hong Kong’s MRT subway system.  The flights landed and departed uneventfully.

The weekend after my scheduled trip, 10-11^th of August, tensions reached a fever pitch. On Facebook, I came across a photo taken in an MRT station. Laser sights pierced the smoke-filled cavern. “This is not a sci-fi movie. This is Hong Kong”, read the caption. Hong Kong’s international airport was shut down.

Homeward Bound

When May rolled around, I had been on the ship for 8 months and there was a lot of inside knowledge to turn over to my replacement, and very little time. Like an essay, though, it was completed in time. On the top of my concerns was the weather. My ship was anchored an hour out of Chinhae, Korea, and on my last workday I had been delayed half a day while conducting ship's business ashore. As I was closing out affairs with the ship's master, I asked if I should leave before morning, forgoing a good night sleep, because of the waves. He assured me that the weather would be alright. Which it was.

I had a last hurrah on Texas Street in Pusan, and visited Haeundae Beach (seeing is believing). It was Cinco de Mayo, and my original itinerary would've landed me in Norfolk before closing time the same day, 37 hours after midnight in Korea, due to the international date line. Instead, I flew on May 6th, and my first flight sent me to Tokyo. I had enough time to clear customs and go to the town of Narita for lunch. The next flight was 11 hours to Detroit. Many people bemoan long flights, but I didn't mind having the time to myself, and only to myself. In the air, I watched several movies, including "Brooklyn", "The Finest Hours", and a documentary of gentrification in San Francisco. I was curious about this pulsing change that is radiating from San Francisco. It's tech, but it's more than just tech.

Although I flew out of the US to meet ships, once to Israel and twice to Korea, I also haven't entered the US by airplane since 2007. I wondered what the experience would be. Detroit airport, in flyover country, is now an international airline hub for Delta Airlines. I suppose that it was decided by big data. Was Customs and Border Protection on top of their game?  Four widebody flights had arrived in one hour, and contributed to some customs delays in the otherwise well-designed and partially automated international arrival area. 
Slipping easily across borders today, enabled in the name of free trade, reminded me of the time between the gilded age of railroads and the outbreak of World War One, those with means to travel in Europe did so easily and without passports.

My flight from Detroit to Norfolk was delayed for a technical issue. I was surprised, because I always had my engine plant ready ten minutes before departure. Never a minute late. Then again it was me and twenty others to assist in the engineering department, versus a cockpit crew of two. I slept little on the long flight, but wasn't in bad shape, though. I got home at 10pm local time, and woke up for lunch. No jet lag, really.

The Seldom Flier

You know you haven't been on a plane in a while if...

You expected not to pay for your first two bags of luggage
You think the drinks and peanuts are free
You licked your chops in anticipation of the meal, also free
You call the flight attendant "stewardess"
You think the pilot's all jolly about his paycheck
You read the inflight magazine because there's no better entertainment
You thought smoking was allowed on board, and there was a lounge to do so in.
You call for a blanket and pillow, and expect to not shell out a Hamilton- or swipe your card
You deny that a plane can make it from DC to Alaska nonstop
You refuse to believe that transcontinental flights are $189 (plus taxes and fees)
and that transatlantic flights are the same price.
You thought you were still on the ground because the takeoff was so quiet.
You believe that the stewardesses are registered nurses
You think the average flier's outfit is scandalous


Like Daddy

Miracle on the Hudson

We interrupt the regular programming to bring some inside details about US Airways Flight 1549-

Lower heights of buildings north of 96th street allow planes to take the U-turn described on graphics. The plane did not come perilously close to the GWB at 181st street. LGA is located at about the place of 125th.

The most famous water landing disaster was the 1982 AirFlorida flight 90 on the Potomac River. The Floridian pilots did not understand what ice was---it actually happened about this time of year, 27 years ago. Only 6 people survived the wreck, 1 of them died before leaving the water. The bridge that was partially damaged by the plane was named after him- The Arlene D. Williams 14th Street Bridge.

Differences exist- the AirFlorida pilots were incompetent and lacked much brain ("regulations and deicing are just regulation"; "We don't have enough thrust", Nah, we'll dodge that bridge"). The USAIR pilots were attentive, and understood geography- Teterboro, with a short but salvageable runway was an option they crossed out in 15 seconds- they judged it to be too far, and executed a rarely successful intact-fuselage water landing- as commonly seen on those safety cards. A full aircraftSunCountry now flies from Dulles, a no-brainer beginner's airport with ample space to correct mistakes.

With by-the-card evacuation and a rapid rescue, an unprecedented 155 people escaped with the most serious injury a broken leg.


Miracle on the Hudson seems like a plausible name for a new ACI.

My Brainchild

No, passengers will not appreciate being sent from their local airport to the Dulles (VA/DC) passenger sorting facility and back to their final destination. This is not overnight mail. People want to reduce their time in the air, no matter how luxurious it may be, to spend more time on the ground. Anyway, three airports got new runways today- Washington Dulles, Chicago O'Hare, and Portland. DC's strip was the most economical, at $350 mil, the cost of 6 Boeing 737's. The Portland runway somehow cost $1 bil. How did that happen? Anyway, cheers to the future of air travel from these smart cities.

Sponsored by Northern Express Airlines. Coming to an airport near you.

Airplane!

Queensland and Northern Territory Aerial Services (more commonly known as QANTAS, had an incident similar to the one on Aloha Airlines Flight 243. (according to AP) As of now, no one on board has perished.
Somehow, as of now, the fact hasn't made it to Wikipedia yet.

In personal news, Little Brother had us bike to the Airport again (3rd time this week), this time, keeping a timetable of points. Surprisingly, it only takes half an hour, with crosswinds, as usual, to bike there, and a little shorter back (no crosswinds, as usual).