Monday, December 26, 2022
Looking for the Exclamation Point
Saturday, December 10, 2022
Why I Recommend College Degrees for Mariners: the COVID-19 Pivot
Tuesday, November 29, 2022
Train Our Own Mariners
Sunday, November 13, 2022
Book Review: The Greatest Beer Run Ever
Saturday, October 29, 2022
Geographic Dispersal
Monday, October 17, 2022
What Happens at the end of Work from Home?
Sunday, October 2, 2022
Monkeypox?
Saturday, September 17, 2022
Work Hard, Play Hard, Retire Well: The Skilled Labor Shortage Explained
Saturday, September 3, 2022
Systems Engineering by Bus
Sunday, August 21, 2022
Busan Update
I’ve taken a new assignment as a First Assistant Engineer onboard a supply ship working in the Far East. Coincidently, my brother just finished several weeks of vessel inspections in Korea, and we met for dinner in Busan.
This Korean city has long been connected to maritime trade. Military cargo for peacekeeping efforts began in the 1950s, but now, the commercial seaport and nearby shipyards stand out for their volume of work.
Busan Train Station, and so-called Texas Street, served as the cultural nexus and service providers for international ferry travelers and global mariners. Due to COVID-19 restrictions, passenger traffic has declined. Most mariners are still confined to their ships, even as general international tourism has recently reopened in Korea. But, this has not proved fatal to the majority of Texas Street businesses- the ethnic restaurants, live music venues, and currency exchange parlors. In this older part of Busan, there is little pressure for landlords search for new tenants. Texas Street remains well positioned for the next generation of mariners on shore business and liberty.
Saturday, August 6, 2022
Paper Record
About a year ago, I decried the fully-digital office. Well, necessity is the mother of invention. As I enter the second decade of my career, carrying paper copies of every certificate and record has become a physical burden. I used to keep everything in a binder, roughly separated by category: Navy Reserve, maritime licensing papers, employer-specific files.
That binder became two binders, and categorization between topics was lost in the shuffle. So, I finally took the time to start removing the certificates that were simply irrelevant to my career: the expired papers, a pool operator's certificate, ABC Alcohol Server training.
What remained were licenses that hang on the walls of a learned professional's office: the Professional Engineer and Merchant Mariner's Licenses; sea service letters documenting the various ships I've worked aboard; certificates I will need to present to the ship's purser; annual Navy Reserve evaluations; copies of title to my home, my car, and gold coins. This winnowing of paperwork was healthy in the way that it increased my focus on what was important for the present and the future. I could let go of the trivial, and focus on key strengths and abilities.
Saturday, July 23, 2022
A Century of the Park and Ride.
In World War Two, fuel rationing combined with the construction of military facilities and factories on the fringe of cities, such as Farmingdale NY, required the use of carpooling by war workers.
Even in the automobile friendly 1950s, city planners recognized that freeways and road widening could not solve the urban traffic problem - even the infamous General Motors admitted so in their half hour documentary “Let’s Go to Town”. Fringe parking outside of downtown were put into service, saving motorists downtown parking fees and the aggravation of stop and go driving.
Later, approaching and during the 1970s fuel crises, these park and rides were placed closer to residential areas, and dedicated bus lanes, such as those between DC and Alexandria VA, and on NYC’s Lincoln Tunnel Approach, were put into service.
A decline in carpooling came with the rise in dual-income households: husbands now took responsibility for a “honey do list”, domestic responsibilities such as grocery shopping and dry-cleaning pickup on the way home from work. This often required bringing one owns car to the office, instead of sharing the ride with a co-worker.
Revitalization and construction of new downtown sports stadiums in the 1990s required proactive traffic management. The lots and light rails that served office commuters by day could serve tourists in the evening.
Greyhound, the intercity bus company, realized that most riders had at least occasional access to a car for local trips. Bus stations moved out of downtowns to highway-adjacent park and rides. In states that have taken an interest in preserving regional bus access such as Colorado and Virginia, park and rides serve as the gateway to other regions of their respective states.
In addition to its service in preserving the walkability of downtown areas, the park-and-ride has also impacted the human experience at seaports, piers, and shipyards. In the United States, Boston Ship Repair in Boston, MA; and Deyten's in North Charleston, SC, deserve applause for avoiding the trend of turning port areas into vast asphalt parking lots. At these shipyards, mariners and shipfitters can easily walk to lunch outside the company gates. Reducing the need for a personal automobile increases quality of life. Long live the park and ride!
Sunday, July 10, 2022
The Great Shakedown
Workers in the maritime industry were greatly affected by COVID-19, from restricted port visits to delayed crew changes and cruise-ship levels of virus transmission. As wages and pensions were generous compared to other industries, retirement and career realignment were viable options for a large part of the American seafaring workforce. What does the employment field look like today?
Deck Officers
Compared to the number of jobs available at the time, there
was an oversupply of deck officers in Western countries this past decade. The
issue was more acute at the third mate level, who are typically recent
graduates. While maritime academies graduate fewer mates than engineers, deck
officers have higher retention in the afloat maritime industry than engineers.
The wave of COVID-era retirements unstuck the promotion pipeline in the deck
department, and allows newer officers to take positions at their highest
qualification.
Engineering Officers
In 2014, international regulatory changes came into effect, requiring
newly-minted ship’s officers to hold at least a community college level of
education. The maritime industry had an unusually linear path for promotion,
from entry level to department head. Now, the employment pool of ship’s
officers has been detached from the skilled labor pool, which used to send its
members into the officer ranks with regularity.
On the demand side, more maritime-trained engineers are
working ashore are than staying aboard ship. Industrial and facilities engineering
disciplines had become neglected areas of concentration at most flagship universities.
These hands-on programs were generally forgotten as engineering programs became
more scientifically-oriented towards high-tech research and development. Someone
needs to fill these jobs, and the career-oriented nature of maritime academies
became the first stop for power plant, sophisticated equipment technician, and
prototype employers.
Skilled Level
The most perplexing labor shortage at sea is the mid-level positions,
the able seamen and enginemen. Perhaps the average age for this cohort had
increased to 55; younger people were doing short stints at the entry level, or
going for a college degree and an officer’s berth. The top unions for these
workers did not suffer a pension collapse, as the American Maritime Officers’
union did in 2009, so these mid-levels were able to retire on schedule.
The Navy and Coast Guard had been steady suppliers of skilled mariners, but shipping companies must compete with other veteran-friendly employers such as defense contractors and large-capital corporations.
It seems that these positions would be great targets for
re-skilling workers displaced by deindustrialization. Someone has to pay for the
training, though, whether it is state employment agencies, the GI Bill,
employers, or largely out-of-pocket. Entry-level personnel will not commit to
the expense until they are sure that the maritime field is right for them.
Employers expected recent maritime academy graduates to
backfill these positions. During lean times, as recently as 2020, graduates of
limited economic means went “before the mast” to begin earning family-sized
paychecks, instead of waiting for an officer’s assignment. But when officer
positions are readily available, it takes a lot of gaslighting (“you’re not
ready…”, etc.) to get new graduates to take unlicensed positions- not an
efficient or ethical strategy.
Entry Level
Traditionally, the gatekeepers of entry-level, deep-sea maritime
positions, such as union training schools and federal government agencies with
ships, could offer entry-level positions to those with previous work
experience. These prospective mariners would be expected to bring something to
the table, professionally. Preferably, they had work experience on inland and
fishing boats. If not, they could be a great cook, or have nighttime watch standing
experience from the Army. But at this moment, the gatekeepers are recruiting at
high school job fairs. Salaried employment, or fixed contracts, in the maritime
industry, certainly beats the variable pay and unpredictable schedules of other
employers, such as foodservice. The potential for upward mobility at sea is
unparallel as well.
Saturday, June 25, 2022
Mariners Don't Work from Home
I am employed in the civil service, with two days of
work-from-home per week. This is unusual in the maritime industry overall,
where our contractors can be found at their offices, or in the field, any
working day of the week.
The maritime industry; like investment banking, medicine,
and top law; is not just a job, but a lifestyle. Due to the intense hours and
high skills necessary, these occupations traditionally pay a single-breadwinner
wage that supports a professional lifestyle. It is implied that there is
someone at home, either a spouse or an au-pair, who takes care of the little
things at home, to set up the high-earning professional for success. In the
return-to-office debate, it was often revealed by anecdote that the “back to
work” types had a system for domestic support. In the maritime industry, this
is not just weekday help on the homefront, but one that can go for weeks or
months, in the case of deep-sea voyages.
In contrast to acute events such as hurricanes and terrorist
attacks, the cyclical nature of COVID-19 has blurred the distinction between a
contingency mode of work (OK for employees to use work time to take care of
life necessities, including childcare) to standard operations (Employer gets
full attention during the work day). Switching to a lower tempo is somewhat
disadvantageous in a high-performance industry, where the workforce is
acculturated to giving all to their profession.
One of the more significant issues surrounding
work-from-home is the security of clients’ information, whether it is the
proprietary trade information of a private business, or classified information
for military vessels. For the private sector, profit comes from incremental
improvement and advantage in an otherwise commoditized market. We wouldn’t take
annual training on countermeasures if espionage didn’t happen.
Shoresiders are seen as sissies, already. At sea, a lot
happens between 5pm on Friday and 8am on Monday. The shoreside 5-day-per-week
work schedule contrasts to the 7-day-a-week lifestyle of a sailing mariner.
Depending on the time zone difference between the ship and the office, it could
be a 72-hour delay in communication because of the weekend. Already, ship’s
officers have epithets for shore-side office people over this perceived lack of
support; the relationship would be more strained in a permanent work-from-home
environment, where impromptu meetings are more difficult to arrange. Ships are
tangible items. During COVID-19 lockdowns, crewmembers had their workload increase
when shore-siders were unable to visit ships in-person. Photographs and summary
reports now had to be undertaken by the crew in order to support shore-siders’
work-from-home plans.
In the work-from-home model, new maritime employees
recruited from non-traditional sources (such as polytechnic colleges and
shoreside industry) will lose the opportunity to develop social skills relevant
to the maritime industry- the unwritten rules of work. Granted, some of these
old-fashioned norms needed to disappear, as witnessed by the #womenbelongatsea
movement.
Saturday, June 11, 2022
Could it Work? Profit Share on Vessels
Two hundred years ago, it was common for mariners to be paid not in salary, but in share of revenue from the ship’s voyage. Depending on the trade, a captain might collect a long draw of 1/8th, and an ordinary seaman perhaps 1/200th of the ship’s earnings on a voyage.
Looking back to the 1920’s, this practice had become
obsolete for the most part. In the whaling trade, this practice continued. Many
vessels used in the whaling trade were purchased secondhand. Most trade routes
had shifted from sail to steam between 1890 and 1910, leaving many sailing
vessels available for reuse in longer-haul trades. Thus, the cost of labor was
significant compared to the cost of capital equipment, such as the vessel,
sails, and whaling gear. The mariners were an integral part of the value chain,
as they sailed the ship and refined whale oil onboard, during their long
voyage. In contrast to the cargo trade, where sailing routes were fixed, and
cargos assigned by agents ashore; the nature of whaling incentivized captains
to engage in the profit-seeking motive of finding the whales, even if it took
them far from homeport.
It is still common in the fishing industry to practice
profit-sharing, whether it is the San Diego fishing fleet or the Alaskan trade.
A small crew works long hours to produce seafood.
Today, crew costs for a large cargo vessel represents
perhaps just 10 percent of vessel operating costs. On foreign vessels, labor
accounts for perhaps $1 million for $10 million in costs, not including
mortgage payments on the vessel. Yet labor
cost is the realm in which international shipowners try to pare down costs. Fuel
costs, on the other hand, can represent 50% of a vessel’s operating expense,
and is highly variable. It therefore is impractical to assign the profitability
“risk” to crewmembers, when other factors affecting vessel profitability are
much more variable than a fixed salary.
How else can mariners profit from voyages beyond their
salary? In sailing ship days, ship’s masters often owned their own vessels; and
this owner-operator culture still exists on rivers and bays. Many deep-sea ships
are incorporated as their own Limited Liability Company under a shipping firm’s
umbrella. Bondholders and bank lenders on ship’s equipment will prefer a fixed
return, but preferred shares of stocks in a particular vessel, with dividends
paid on voyage earnings, could offer a more entrepreneurial investment for
knowledgeable mariners. Currently, this format is not practiced for large ships,
although inland boats may be paid for through this “crowdfunded” method.
Saturday, May 28, 2022
Going Rogue? Unlikely
Someone posed the question online, as to the likelihood of a Navy ship’s captain going rogue. I speculated that it is an unlikely scenario, for the following reasons:
My experience is onboard
civilian-operated supply ships for the US Navy. The Captain and other
department heads have spent years fully indoctrinated in the Navy way of
thinking. From the moment they are hired as Third Officers, they are given
extensive training on various tactical and leadership topics. (In contrast,
many engineering officers pay for 100% of their own training). Small amounts of
responsibility, such as handling small arms or being the Flight Deck Officer,
are given early, but can be revoked. That would be a red flag. The Admiral must
personally approve promotions of civilian Captains. The more unconventional
officers (pacificists, conspiracy theorists) are not placed on critical ships,
such as the ammo carriers. And yes, Special Forces practice on how to get from
the helicopter deck to the ship’s bridge.
On a combatant ship, as OP notes,
all of these precautions, and more, would be utilized very rigorously in the
selection of COs and XOs.
Has it happened in recent times? Yes. The privately-managed SS Columbia Eagle was taken over by entry-level crewmembers in a 1970 munity, as protest against the war in Vietnam. As far as government vessels go, the aforementioned measures are an insurance policy against barratry (by a ship's captain) and mutiny (by the crew).
Saturday, May 14, 2022
Wither the Radio Officer?
The Radio Officer is one of the shipboard positions no
longer found anymore. The responsibilities for that position were shifted to
the Deck Officer, and in a bygone era, the Deck Officers would split the Radio
Officer’s pay. The Radio Officer was a member of the Deck department, but on
government ships that still retain the position, they usually report to the
engineering department.
The Radio Officer was most famous for being an operator of
the radiotelegraph, and later, the teletype. But their weight in gold was their
ability to tune and maintain equipment.
Most maritime regulation is made on the basis of safety, not
convenience of crewmembers. By 1979, satellite-based GMDSS (Global Maritime
Distress Signaling System) replaced morse code as the primary method of
distress communications on the high seas.
Crucially, modular components- with spare parts carried
onboard, and shore-based servicing available in every port, meant that ship’s
officers no longer had the maintainer role, just the operator role. By this
point, radio officers were helping the Captain with various paperwork responsibilities:
there wasn’t much for “Sparky” to do with reliable, self-adjusting equipment.
The US Coast Guard still offers Radio Officer licensure. A
closer look at the requirements, such as telegraphy, reveals that this
licensure is designed for legacy ships, including some on the Great Lakes, and
the WWII-era museum ships. More relevant are the modern-day endorsements for
licensed Deck officers, including GMDSS training, a two-week course.
Saturday, April 30, 2022
Real World Constraints versus the Ivy Swimming Pool
A certain college swimmer has been in the news for bending the rules, so it’s said. Not naming names, because anyone could have been the test case, switching from the Men’s to Women’s team without a significant interlude. Unnatural advantages are nothing new: earlier this century, the famous biker Lance Armstrong muddied the waters with his steroid use- apparently taking more than required for his medical condition. But what stands out, if I may say, is the swimmer’s sense of “due”. Sociologist Annette Lareau uses the term "entitlement" as a professional-class sense of belonging in a place, a term which I think has taken a negative connotation recently.
In the Real World (that
is, outside the literal Ivory Tower), prioritization and the acceptance of
constraints is a fact of life. Two good things can be mutually exclusive: being
a nationally-ranked Men’s Team Swimmer, regardless of gender identity, as this individual was; or receiving
treatment for gender dysphoria. In mutual exclusivity, you do one thing first,
then the other. The re-established three-year waiting period to switch teams,
in the case of transgender players, may hobble a student-athlete’s athletic
career, but delaying medical treatment for career or other ambitions is not out
of the ordinary in the Real World.
For some mariners,
including those on the high seas, it is impossible to complete a series of
orthodontic treatment, while earning a paycheck: the location and time of shore
leave is unpredictable, and not conducive to monthly appointments. For women
mariners, the same constraints apply to fertility treatment; and if successful,
non-seagoing work would have to be found for the duration of pregnancy. In my
case, it took a year to find time to see a nasal specialist: when I was on a
high-tempo ship, I relied on walk-in clinics, who could not give
specialists’ referrals.
Forgoing treatment, extending treatment (in the case of
government mariners who work year-round), or skipping medication commonly seen
as disqualifying for a safety-sensitive position, are all common in the shipping industry. We
have come a long way, in some respects. It is no longer expected to work
through an injury, or accept chronic pain “like a man”- an irony, as women have
higher pain tolerance. Seeking mental health care is no longer a disqualifier
for security work. Yet, for quality-of-life care, there remains a question of
access, even if these people at sea and in other remote environments can afford
it. This is what the Real World sees in the Ivy League swimmer’s case.
Saturday, April 16, 2022
PE Exam: Game Day
Most
successful exam takers recommend doing nothing but relaxing the day before
taking the 8-hour Professional Engineering exam. I ignored their advice. I had finished
a practice exam the previous Saturday, but it was only on the day before
test-day that I had time to rework missed problems.
Even
on test day, between breakfast at the Holiday Inn Express and the test center
opening, I ran through my flashcards with important formulae- rules of thumb-
not included in the test handbook.
I
prepared snacks and lunch in portioned bags, placing them in my test candidate’s
locker. Save brainpower for the test, instead of thinking about what to eat. In
previous times, PE exam candidates, like lawyers aiming for the State Bar,
would convene at certain convention-like centers around the state on a given
day. Now, nearly all tests are offered at Pearson’s Professional Testing
Centers, which serve members of various trades and professions, including
nurses, EMTs, and dentists.
At
least at the center I tested at, order of seating is given on a first-come,
first-serve basis, so anxious individuals with a 2-hour exam could be seated ahead
of full-day examinees. But there was a silver lining in the wait, as I decided
to take my morning break early. If was fortuitous that I could plug-and-chug
until lunchtime.
It had
been several years since I sat for a major exam, so, like plunging into the
cold water of the hotel pool, I remembered to mind my breathing and heart rate (My
grad school program in Systems Engineering had no timed tests, just projects
and reports).
Unlike
most every other academic exam, the NCEES’ PE exam is a test that is about
endurance, strategy, and time management. It is a test where perfection is erroneous,
and where you are expected to skip questions to better manage time- an average
of 6 minutes per question. Indeed, PhD’s are often permitted to skip this exam
on the road to state licensure- their work is quite different from the
constraints faced by ordinary practitioners of the engineering profession.
I took the Mechanical- HVAC version, which errs towards the blue-collar side of the PE exams that NCEES offers. In this test, the writers want to ensure that someone long out of college, but dedicated to the industry, can pass the exam. I reviewed refrigeration questions from the US Coast Guard’s Marine Engineering test series, which is heavily focused on practical applications; several questions were direct hits.
Each
half of the test is about the same length in questions. But there is no cutoff clock for the
first half, so you could pace 4 hours and 4 hours, or 3 hours and 5 hours
between the halves. To reduce stress, I was not going to allot extra time to
the first half of the exam, since the second half is traditionally the harder-
and time-consuming half.
In the
first half, I recall that I spent too much time on one question, then had to shoot-from-the
hip on one I could have calculated. It resembled a practice problem, so I chose
the answer from memory. It turned out the second half of the exam was the
easier one, this cycle. (Four versions of the test are issued each year, and April
1 was the first day of a new test version). I definitely was dragging by
question 75, out of 80, yet I had time to rework uncertain problems, and leave
the test center 20 minutes ahead of time.
At the
end of the exam, I had a high level of confidence, which waned with
second-guessing myself the next day. A missed fundamental concept, such as
confusing latent heat with sensible heat, could cost 7 questions, and the
test-writers know which wrong answers to give as choices. One missed
fundamental leaves little room for other errors, for the average-performing
test taker. And of the fill-in-the-blank questions, what was the leeway given
for rounding errors? The never specified the number of decimal points to give.
With the computer-based test, I completed the
exam on Friday, April 1, and received results on the following Wednesday. I
couldn’t bear to see what I might see, but I saw the green bar of success! As I
have completed all of the other state prerequisites for licensure (education,
references, and an ethics exam), I am just waiting on the official letter to
come from Richmond, VA.
As I
sat on the tailgate of my car, having completed the test, I wondered at the
feeling of having completed “the last test of your life”. For many of my undergraduate
classmates at the US Merchant Marine Academy, comprehensive tests for the US
Coast Guard Merchant Mariner License were the end of their academic careers. We
had a profession for life, if sailing as a mariner is what we wanted.
Saturday, April 2, 2022
Middle Managers That Weren't
The 1940’s to the 1990’s were the golden age of middle management. World War Two was foisted upon a United States that still had a large agricultural population. To ensure quick learning for workers transitioning from farm to industry, it was necessary to break work into small tasks, with rigid supervision of personnel and production of reports. This method won the war.
The high overhead of this kind of supervision meant many
jobs for middle managers, who often were picked from liberal arts colleges
rather than the assembly line. As foreign countries built their industries
along different management systems (such as Japanese quality control or German
quality design), high overhead costs and large internal bureaucracy strangulated
profits and ingenuity.
To rework these byzantine processes and procedures, “re-engineering
the corporation” meant re-evaluating the hierarchical organizational charts.
Work once performed in narrow silos, (for example- clerks who processed one or
two lines on a form) now became assigned to functional groups centered on a
tangible result (customer satisfaction or widget-making machines repaired).
Prospective management, which prevents employees from inducing errors; was
replaced with less-costly retrospective management, which trusts the auditing
process to find errors.
Middle management stood outside of the “value chain”, as
found in Six Sigma theory; or the rolls of “essential workers” in the COVID-19 Pandemic.
While the implementation of re-engineering created efficiency and return to
profitability; the 1993 namesake book’s author, Michael Hammer, did not discuss
what to do about displaced middle managers; or how the nascent internet would
many first post-college jobs obsolete. Nor what to do about the continued rate
of business and liberal arts majors graduating college each year; as college
counsellors were late to the news.
Broken expectations are topics for a different day. Even if
these graduates never reach the upper-middle class lifestyle, there is still a
baseline consumption of goods and services; think food shelter, and medicine;
which must be provided by essential workers. Those large student loans are a
millstone on disposable income, whether it is to start a family or small
business, or buy a home.
Many essential workers in the oft-forgotten “value chain”
proclaim themselves “open to work”. They are commonly credentialed in multiple
trades and professions; yet if they’re shipping war matériel to Europe, they
aren’t available for offshore oil drilling. If they’re building houses, they
aren’t available for over-the-road trucking. They are in-demand, and many are
paid handsomely up-front; in contrast to the long-term payout envisioned by future
middle managers. For whatever the reasons, vocational-focused colleges tend to
be magnitudes more affordable than liberal arts colleges.
How do you retool those middle-managers to become more
essential, and to become part of the value chain? Some might cite the use of
vocational aptitude tests, to determine that many people are not suited for
manual labor, technical, or field work. But the experience of the military,
through its promotion rates of Corporals and Petty Officers, shows that at
least half of the population is suited for both labor and supervision; blue-collar
and white-collar work (not just in today’s highly-selective military; but in
Cold War times, when most volunteers were accepted for service). Occupational
elitism is another concern: Would degreed construction managers lend a hand on
the worksite?
When colleges and non-essential businesses were closed
during the heart of the Pandemic, I could see with my own eyes that many young
adults rolled up their sleeves, and went to work on construction sites, as independent-contract
delivery drivers, and as trade apprentices. If it was not just the ennui of
boredom, the Invisible Hand of Economics finally did its work. Those college
graduates will have some concrete skills to put on their resumes.
Saturday, March 19, 2022
A Maritime Strategy for Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin did the unthinkable: There’s a shooting war in Europe. Fear of isolation from the “international community”, whatever that means to liberal democracies, the Geneva Convention, lessons from the Nuremburg Trials, and economic sanctions, failed to stop total war in Ukraine. NATO and the US was afraid of “poking the bear”, but Putin escalated his war nevertheless.
The news has covered the stories of Ukrainian-American expatriates
and mercenaries fighting in the ground war; and I have had peers ask “how do I
join the fight?”. To those with maritime experience, I advise staying at sea, with
a focus on delivering food and supplies. Odessa, accessed through Istanbul’s Bosporus
Strait and through the Black Sea, offers the most daring route. Russian harassment
and occasional attacks on vessels today harken back to World War Two’s Murmansk
Run. A successful convoy of merchant ships can deliver more goods than
airplanes and trucks, the current vehicles of logistics. The merchant marine is
a business, however, and in wartime conditions, governments must provide
assurance to vessels flying their flag. In the United States, various tools can
be activated by the Maritime Administration, under the DOT. These include activation
of Second Seaman’s War Risk Insurance, to guarantee life insurance benefits for
mariners, and vessel insurance for shipowners. Declaring a Sealift Emergency
would allow retired and former mariners to crew ships, with the ability to
return to their shore-based jobs after completing a voyage (similar to the
USERRA benefit provided to military reservists and draftees).
Dependency on Oil and Gas is the Achille’s heel of the West.
During the first week of Putin’s war in Ukraine, which began on February 22nd,
countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom had no plans to curtail fuel
purchases from Russia’s war machine. Given that fuel prices at the gas pump had
already increased, I was afraid that the politicians in Washington, DC would be
afraid of acting decisively. Initially, I felt that some form of rationing or
subsidy (such as government-issued fuel cards to consumers) would be required
to ease off Russian fuel imports. This would go hand-in-hand with fuel
conservation posters asking motorists “if this trip is necessary”. Citizens
would be asked to turn down the thermostat in cold-weather environments, and raise
it in warm-weather environments, to save fuel.
The transition was easier than expected. Existing domestic
production, the price/demand curve for fuel consumption, and cooperation from
other OPEC nations allowed the US to adapt to the cut in Russian fuel imports. Idle
offshore oil rigs were already being restored to service, as the price of oil
had increased over the key threshold of $80 per barrel. In oil rig layup, the drilling
rig roughnecks and brown-water mariners bear the brunt of fluctuations: working
on a drillship or supply vessel is high-paying work when it is available.
In World War Two, construction of the Big Inch Pipeline from
Texas to New Jersey was prioritized in order to free oil tankers from the
dangerous duty of navigating the Atlantic Coast, infested with Nazi U-Boats. Energy
security today demands construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline, while
respecting the rights of the Lakota People. This pipeline alone is reported to
have the carrying capacity equivalent to fuel imports from Russia. While the
conflict in Ukraine will hopefully be resolved before completion of the
pipeline, its existence should change Russia’s geopolitical calculations in the
longer term. On the greener side, conservatives and war hawks will find clean
energy investments, such as solar and wind farms, to be part of a national
security strategy.
President Eisenhower correctly assessed the importance of logistics
in wartime. This is evident in reports of frontline Russian soldiers begging
for MREs, or pre-packaged meals. Food,
Supplies, and Fuel- both how we use them at home, and how we deliver them to
Ukraine, are essential parts for victory.
Saturday, March 5, 2022
Mama Lenders and Mortgage Lenders
As it is today, the housing sector is a provider of equal opportunity. People in their respective economic milieus live in somewhat-integrated neighborhoods. Taking Fairfax County, Virginia as an example, Working-Class Whites and Latinos may share one neighborhood; and Upper-Middle Class Whites and Asians may share another neighborhood.
There is one group that is left behind, studies show: middle-class
African-Americans, who miss out on the opportunity to purchase in the same neighborhoods
that White Americans of similar economic status do. Merely calling it “systemic
racism” won’t solve the discrepancy; but dissecting it will.
Qualification for a traditional mortgage is based on the
ability to repay; in addition to making a down payment. Many prospective homebuyers
must budget carefully to build the down payment, by cutting out some
discretionary spending. African-American
purchasing habits are similar to other Americans, although the community spends
slightly more on haircare and barbeque supplies, slightly less on home
appliances. Contrary to pervasive stereotypes, spending on discretionary goods (such
as shoes and handbags) does not differ from other groups.
How “consumer debt” is handled, does differ culturally. In
the African-American community, it is common for family members in middle-class
jobs to gift, or loan on flexible terms, significant sums of money to less-fortunate
relatives. This could be cash for a nephew to buy a used car for his new job,
medical expenses for a parent, or college textbooks for a cousin.
In previous decades, this arrangement was highly beneficial,
and even necessary to ensure a family’s security in light of the peonage, or
debt-bondage, system common in the Jim Crow South. In the Agricultural South
and Industrial North, young and middle-aged men had a short period of time in
their prime-earning years. This relative excess would be used to support family
members in more vulnerable financial situations, such as grandparents. Today, this
informal system of family assurance is much better for the recipient economically
than a payday loan, and better than a high-interest credit card. It, however,
does not enhance the donor’s credit score; nor is the possibility of receiving
mutual assurance counted towards “ability to pay” a mortgage.
Asian-American families often have a similar practice of
family assurance, but with one notable difference among the American-born: bank
checks are passed instead of large bills. When financial transfers within a
family are significant, traceability makes a large impact on perceived
creditworthiness. When cash “disappears” from a bank account, it is assumed by mortgage
lenders to have been spent. A check, written out to a relative, carries intrinsic
proof as an intra-family gift.
Indeed, many members of the Black Middle Class may fall
through the cracks of mortgage lenders; resulting in smaller loan approvals and
higher interest rates; and consequently, less choice of neighborhood. What mortgage
originators need to do, then, is to recognize this form of family assurance as
a legitimate form of insurance and financial security. Community leaders should
encourage the use of traceable instruments, such as bank checks or mobile apps,
to ‘mainstream’ this mutually-beneficial practice in the eyes of institutional
lenders.
Saturday, February 19, 2022
Gen X Still Remembers the Great Recession: A Virginia Chronicle
Having spent their lives fending for themselves, the theory goes,
Generation X is naturally conservative. In the New York Times, Ross Douthat further
speculates that this generation came of age in the 1980s and 1990s, a time of broad-based
conservative and neo-liberal reforms that delivered public order and individual
prosperity.
But exit polls in Terry McAuliffe’s two runs for Virginia
Governor tell a different story locally. In his 2013 run, the 30-40 demographic
voted strongest for the Democrat, while the under-30’s went for his unsuccessful
Tea Party Republican opponent, Ken Cuccinelli. In his 2021 campaign, McAuliffe
overperformed with the 40-50 demographic (who were 30-somethings in 2013); and
underperformed with the 30-40 group, ultimately losing the race. This inversion
of national trends perplexed me: why were our Gen X-ers more liberal than their
national peers, while our millennials tilted to the right?
Did liberal GenX-ers move to Virginia when then-Governor Tim
Kaine declared in 2008 that “Old Virginny is Dead”? Aside from the Democrats
who held statewide elected office, Virginia for the next decade would still retain
a distinctively conservative political culture. No, it was not Mr. Kaine’s
come-on, but one facilitated by the Great Recession. I have said before that
1987 was the worst year to be born in post-WWII America; indeed, in the face of
mass layoffs and unemployment, there were few jobs for recent college graduates
in 2009-2010. Washington, DC, however, stood out from the rest. The Federal
Government was hiring, and the Obama Administration was in-sourcing some
analyst and policy roles that had previously been outsourced to contractors.
Like California in the 1930’s, Washington, DC drew newcomers from across the
country to these government positions.
Where would these newcomers live? Washington, DC’s outer
suburbs, whose housing bubble had burst. Newly-built homes in cul-de-sac
subdivisions were available to rent at affordable prices. Virginia’s
conservative policies meant that the building boom was concentrated here, rather
than in the equidistant Maryland suburbs. A general rebound in home prices benefitted
homeowners in Manassas and Dumfries greatly. But that was a curse if they were
renters.
Virginia Democrats in elected office tend to be either
fiscally or socially conservative. In recent years, however, these suburbs are
the home of the most vocal progressives in the Virginia Legislature. There was
Democratic-Socialist Lee Carter, the liberal enforcer Haya Ayala, and transgender
Delegate Danica Roem. Carter and Ayala are no longer in elected office; their fast
ambition for statewide office ended in loss.
To explain away natural conservativism of Virginia millennials,
there is a practical matter that won’t repeat in future elections, hopefully. Older
millennials, especially mothers displaced from the workforce by lack of
childcare options, are the largest beneficiaries of Governor Glenn Youngkin’s
promise of “no more school lockdowns” for COVID-19. Tellingly, he won the “parent
vote” by 12 points.
In 2013, I thought it was the military vote that pushed the
youth vote to the right. Virginia always had a base of young conservatives:
military members from deep-Southern states: they preferred Bob Dole over Bill Clinton;
John McCain over Barack Obama. After the War on Terror began, it became commonplace
for servicemembers to keep their hometown residency, instead of switching it to
their Virginia duty station. Thus, Virginia Republicans lost room for electoral
error.
The parents of Northern Virginia millennials purchased homes
long ago at affordable prices in now highly-desirable inner-suburban
neighborhoods. In the 1990’s, they might have bought into a state college tuition
prepayment plan for their children; an investment with an incredible effective rate-of-return.
At that time, Governor George Allen successfully pivoted employment in the Cold
War-Era Defense Sector towards the nascent I.T. Industry, avoiding the job
losses and stagnation that hobbled Southern California for years. His fondness
for market-based solutions finally modernized Virginia’s segregation-era economic
system; a regulatory paradigm that kept people down, rather than help them grow.
Virginia’s youngsters were on trajectory
for the professional-class: those with liberal, creative interests moved to the
power cities of their respective careers. Virginia retained capital and infrastructure-heavy
firms that thrive in a loose regulatory environment, such as banking and
weapons manufacturing; the quants grew up and stayed at home, at least until financially
stable. There is nothing like a libertarian living in their parents’ basement:
childhood bedrooms offered short commutes and free rent.
For aspiring young professionals, living in the City of
Washington’s older housing allows for affordable options such as a shared bedroom.
For those who work nights in the service sector, the minimum wage is
progressive. Across the Potomac River in Virginia, the newer apartment stock of
the Clarendon-centered “polo shirt corridor” tends to rent itself to young
adults in higher-paying jobs such as finance and consulting. While the corridor
votes solidly Democratic, Progressivism has no home here. This may change with the
establishment of Amazon’s HQ2. Right-to-Work brought Amazon to Virginia; but
ironically, all those Amazon tech workers might, through elections in representative
democracy, spell the end of Right-to-Work in Virginia.
Thus comes my political theory: While Gen X-ers came to Virginia
in need; Millennials stayed in Virginia, in a position of relative strength and
privilege.
Saturday, February 5, 2022
Will the Law Prevail? AGs as Celebrities and Public Servants
Ken Cuccinelli, who served as deputy secretary of the US
Department of Homeland Security after his term as Virginia’s Attorney General
(2010-2014), was perhaps a prototypical Tea Party Republican politician; but
his term in office did not rock the status quo. A practicing patent attorney,
he came from a golden age of law practice, when the American Bar Association
was supreme. Opinions differed between liberals and conservatives, but the
predominant trend was to empower the people through choice and autonomy; even
if it varied from scientific research and planning favored in the immediate
postwar era.
In the role of Attorney General, Cuccinelli’s work was
informed by strict textualism as a servant of the state, rather than a judicial
philosophy informed by groups such as the Federalist Society. As Attorney
General, Ken Cuccinelli deferred to the legislature to repeal the
one-handgun-a-month limit. This was a bipartisan effort: federal background
checks instituted in the late 1990’s had reduced the importance of this
purchase limit.
The status quo had definitely changed when Cuccinelli’s
successor, Mark Herring (D) refused to defend Virginias’s traditional marriage
law in the lead-up to Obergefell vs Hodges (2015); this deference to the
federal courts was viewed as unprecedented in Virginia’s history. In
retrospect, Herring’s choice has been seen as a decisive, if polarizing moment.
At the time, defense of state laws and practices in the Federal Courts was
widely seen as key function of the Attorney General’s office: “my Virginia,
right or wrong”. Last year, former Governor Ralph Northam (D) never clarified
why he endorsed incumbent Attorney General Mark Herring’s Democratic Primary
opponent, leaving Virginians to guess the reason why: was it his judicial
activism? Was he not progressive enough?
As former Attorney General Mark Herring was on his way out,
he left his successor Jason Miyares (R) a suit against the Town of Windsor for
racially-discriminatory policing practices. This again was a first; as in the
past a gentlemen’s agreement would have been achieved between local government
and the state, well before the courts would become involved.
Bipartisan consensus is harder to achieve today, and the
much-feared swing-state pendulum of diametrically opposite policies had arrived
in Virginia. For a short time in 2020 after universal background checks for gun
purchases became law again in Virginia (under pain of felony offense), I
considered opening an online clearinghouse to handle these transfers; I’m glad
I didn’t, since I would’ve gone out of business. Citing their own
interpretations of the Second Amendment, the vast majority of rural and
suburban Commonwealths’ Attorneys (county DA’s) decided not to prosecute private
transactions done in accordance with prior law.
Newly-inaugurated Attorney General Jason Miyares promised to
take politics out of the office. Even if he avoids going on stage in the
national Republican Party spotlight, his judicial upbringing will guide his
work. Born in 1976, the Federalist Society was active on Virginia law school
campuses when he arrived at the College of William and Mary. This organization
is now seen as an alternative to the American Bar Association, which critics
claim to have become too liberal (i.e. defense-friendly) on criminal justice
issues.
As the alt-right has taken to embrace chaotic, disorderly
forms of personal liberty; he stuck his stake in the position of law-and-order.
To him, freedom and support of law enforcement are complementary, not contrary.
During his campaign, Miyares spoke from the steps of specific courthouses where
criminal assailants were given light sentences. Son of a Cuban immigrant, he
contrasted the terror of Cuba’s secret police knocking at the door, with America’s
love of neighborhood spirit.
He wants to be your local prosecutor, too; and has
asked the legislature for joint jurisdiction with locally-elected
Commonwealths’ Attorneys. If they won’t prosecute, Jason Miyares will. The
changes could take effect as soon as July. In Fairfax County, the most populous
jurisdiction in Virginia, and located just outside of DC, Steve Descano was
elected as a progressive Commonwealth’s Attorney in the anti-Trump wave of
2019. His predecessor left the
Democratic Party in protest. Descano has proven himself to be a hothead with a temper, easy enough to be triggered. While there are other “woke” prosecutors in
the inner suburbs, the joint jurisdiction bill was about Descano, who seems
easy enough to topple in what will be a raucous Fairfax County 2023 Democratic
Primary.
How does the Attorney General put politics and individual
philosophy back into the box it came from? Especially when popular elections
are involved, these elements become deeply engrained in the interpretation and
enforcement of laws. Two suggestions emerge from my experience with the
engineering profession: Reinstate the fraternity-sorority of state bar
membership by emphasizing core principles of “equality and justice for all”. Matters
affecting governance within a state must be handled by local stakeholders; they
cannot be outsourced overseas or to BigLaw; to do otherwise is to lose nuance,
continuity, and collaboration. In this way, duty to the profession of law would
supersede the temporal incentives of playing politics from the Attorney
General’s office.
Saturday, January 22, 2022
Math to Prose and Back Again
I just got tired of studying; the material in Lindeburg’s
guide just wasn’t interesting anymore. While I could cruise through many topics
not relevant to the mechanical exam I will be taking, I was now in the heart of
Thermodynamics, a subject I needed to understand closely.
I had a long-neglected writing project that bubbled up to
the top of my head. I guess the idea had been simmering subconsciously, because
the words flowed easily once I started typing. I had drafts written on loose-leaf
paper, yet I didn’t need to reference them to get my point across. The topic? Maritime tips for a friend’s career
guide that he is writing. In two leisurely nights, the task was done. When I
finished, I even had the motivation to hit the engineering books again.
Saturday, January 8, 2022
Glad I wasn't a Freeway Icicle
It happened in my backyard- a 24-hour backup in fairly
mid-weathered Virginia. Interstate 95 between Washington, DC and Richmond, VA
is fragile at the best of times. It serves as a long-distance route connecting the
Northeast to Florida, a commuter route to Washington DC and the inner suburbs,
and local traffic within the suburbs of Prince William and Stafford counties. Add some weather, and it becomes a parking lot.
Despite ample public warnings and morning snow, the road was carrying near normal
weekday afternoon traffic load. The snow came fast in the afternoon, slushing
the highway, stalling cars and jack-knifed trucks. Once the lanes were blocked,
cars stopped and were frozen in like ice cubes.
Why was everyone out of the road? First, there were lots of
trucks delivering cargo. They just happened to be in the wrong place at the
wrong time. Other essential workers were on the road, including nurses and
firefighters headed to their shifts. Many others were told by their employer to
be at work- not considering stay-at-home warnings. I guess these were not the
same employers who offered special time off during the Thanksgiving and
Christmas holidays. There were those who were making a quick grocery run that
turned into a brutal night; and there were travelers conquering distance, or so
they hoped. GPS blindness put those cars on the road– many long-distance
drivers paid excessive attention to their electronic navigation aids and the
often-optimistic Estimated Times of Arrival (ETA). Those ETAs are estimates,
and drivers, like air pilots and mariners, need to look outside the window for a
reality check.
What were the human factors? Why ignore the warnings? Some
never received them. While tornadoes and hurricanes call for Emergency Alerts broadcasted
to every cellphone, mass notification about this storm did not reach atomized
groups. Complacency in one’s rolling fortress: exhibiting style over substance,
not all large vehicles today are designed for heavy weather driving.
And, for the past two years, propensity to ignore public health and safety warnings. I guess that once you decide that legitimate coronavirus information is “fake news”, blizzards are the next threat to ignore.